◆아주경제 주요뉴스
▷2022년엔 25% 급락…미국 기준금리 인상 앞둔 K-증시 이번엔 어디로?
- As the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week, tension is rising in the domestic stock market. Analysts indicate that signals regarding future tightening will be a key variable, more so than the rate hike itself.
- The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase, which would raise the U.S. benchmark rate from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00%. Additionally, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond surpassed 5% on the 14th.
- In 2022, during a period of aggressive tightening, the KOSPI index fell by 24.89% for the year. However, analysts suggest that the economic conditions this year differ from those in 2022, potentially leading to a different impact from the rate hike.
- Experts believe that if further rate increases are signaled after this hike, long-term interest rates may rise, leading to a flight from risk assets. Conversely, if signs of an end to tightening emerge, the market shock could be limited.
- On this day, the KOSPI fell by 0.85% to 6627.26, marking two consecutive days of decline, driven by net selling from foreign and institutional investors amounting to 1.5735 trillion won and 904.4 billion won, respectively.
◆주요 리포트
▷후공정 산업에 불어오는 훈풍 [한화투자증권]
- The period from 2026 to 2028 is expected to see simultaneous expansions among memory and non-memory semiconductor companies. With an increase in shipments of HBM and AI accelerators, investments in advanced packaging and testing, as well as front-end processes, are anticipated to grow.
- TSMC is facing a worsening supply shortage of CoWoS, with demand for advanced packaging outpacing supply capabilities, driven by an increase in hyper-scalers developing their own ASICs in addition to GPUs.
- Consequently, TSMC has raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from an initial range of $52 billion to $56 billion to $60 billion to $64 billion, with advanced packaging and testing now accounting for 10-20% of its long-term capital expenditures, highlighting the growing importance of post-processing investments.
- Intel is also expanding its EMIB technology as an alternative for advanced packaging in AI semiconductors, investing in capacity expansions in New Mexico and Penang, Malaysia, while enhancing its capabilities for large packages.
- As the deployment of AI accelerators and HBM increases, there is a high likelihood that investments in advanced packaging, including TSMC's CoWoS and Intel's EMIB and EMIB-T, will also expand.
◆장 마감 후(15일) 주요공시
▷알파칩스 공매도 과열종목 연장(공매도 거래 금지 연장)
▷이렘 공매도 과열종목 연장(공매도 거래 금지 연장)
▷라온시큐어 단기과열종목 지정예고
▷오킨스전자 투자경고종목 지정해제 및 재지정 예고
◆펀드 동향(14일 기준, ETF 제외)
▷국내 주식형: +301억원
▷해외 주식형: -10억원
◆오늘(16일) 주요일정
▷미국: 8월 소매판매 MoM, 8월 수출·입물가지수 YoY, 9월 뉴욕 연준 서비스업 경기 활동지수, 9월 NAHB 주택시장지수
▷일본: 7월 핵심기계수주 YoY, 8월 수출·입 YoY, 8월 무역수지
* This article has been translated by AI.
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