◆아주경제 주요뉴스
▷미·일 금리인상 결정 앞두고…커지는 '10조 엔캐리' 청산 공포
-On September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce its decision on interest rates, followed by the Bank of Japan on September 18. Both central banks are anticipated to raise rates by 25 basis points (1 basis point = 0.01 percentage points).
-As the possibility of simultaneous rate hikes in the U.S. and Japan looms, market participants are closely monitoring the direction of the yen's value. The impact of this coordinated rate increase on the yen's strength or weakness is significant for the global capital markets. If the yen continues its upward trend, there is speculation about the unwinding of the 'yen carry trade,' which could reach $1 trillion.
-Leading indicators in the global capital markets suggest an impending unwinding of the yen carry trade. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on investor positions as of September 8, speculative net positions in yen futures totaled 10,796 contracts.
-Tension is rising in the domestic capital markets as well. Concerns are growing that a surprise rate hike by the Bank of Japan in August 2024 could trigger a repeat of the yen carry trade unwinding. According to Eugene Investment & Securities, the foreign currency-denominated assets of Japanese investment trusts reached 133.3091 trillion yen (approximately $1.167 trillion) as of July, a 75% increase from 76.7558 trillion yen in August 2024.
◆주요 리포트
▷AI 회사채 시대, 늘어나는 장기 듀레이션 공급 [하나증권]
-The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen more than 100 basis points since the beginning of the year. Rising oil prices have fueled expectations of inflation, reflecting a robust economy and leading to upward adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. The increase in Treasury and corporate bond supply is contributing to rising term premiums.
-Previously, the increase in long-duration supply was primarily driven by the expansion of Treasury issuance due to rising fiscal deficits. However, with the growing investment in artificial intelligence (AI), large tech companies are rapidly increasing their external funding.
-Notably, the issuance of high-quality corporate bonds related to AI is concentrated in long maturities, leading to an increase in new long-duration supply from the private sector. It is important to note that while the issuers of Treasury and corporate bonds differ, the investor base accepting long durations overlaps to some extent.
-Although Treasury bonds and high-quality corporate bonds differ in terms of safety and liquidity, long-duration investors such as insurance companies and pension funds compare the yields and risks of both markets to allocate funds accordingly.
-When Treasury yields rise, corporate bonds must also be issued at higher rates. Conversely, if a large supply of corporate bonds increases their yields, the relative attractiveness of Treasuries may decrease. In an environment where both Treasury and corporate bond supplies are increasing simultaneously, the required yields in both markets can influence each other, adding upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
◆장 마감 후(16일) 주요공시
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▷앤씨앤, 100억원 유상증자…주식회사 비투엔 등에 3자 배정
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◆펀드 동향(15일 기준, ETF 제외)
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* This article has been translated by AI.
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