◆Aju Economy Major News
▷Air Premia Valuation Negotiations: VIG and Tire Bank Narrowing Differences?
- On September 17, investment banks and the aviation industry reported that VIG Partners has recently appointed Bain & Company as its consulting firm and has begun due diligence for the acquisition of Air Premia. The target of the acquisition is approximately 70% of the management rights held by AP Holdings and Tire Bank.
- The key issue in the negotiations is the price. Kim Jeong-kyu, chairman of Tire Bank, emphasizes that Air Premia possesses differentiated long-haul route competitiveness among domestic low-cost carriers, which is driving up the acquisition price.
- Chairman Kim's investment in Air Premia is around 300 billion won. A source familiar with the matter stated, "Chairman Kim is reportedly asking for at least 400 billion won, reflecting the investment recovery, Air Premia's current revenue nearing 600 billion won, its fleet of nine aircraft, and the value of its robust long-haul network centered on North America."
- In contrast, VIG Partners remains skeptical. Air Premia recorded a total capital of -46.7 billion won last year, indicating a state of complete capital erosion, and the scale of lease liabilities maturing within a year amounts to 85 billion won.
- However, both parties are firmly committed to the sale and acquisition. VIG Partners sees this transaction as essential for the successful exit of Eastar Jet, which it acquired in 2023.
◆Major Reports
▷Rising Oil Prices, But No Immediate Economic Recession [Daishin Securities]
- Oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, raising concerns about the economy. The situation in the Middle East supply chain is intensifying, and operational disruptions at Russian oil production facilities are becoming more frequent.
- Given this situation, considering the liquidity effects that will be reflected late this year, oil prices next year could break historical highs. However, worrying about an immediate economic recession is premature. When adjusted for inflation, real oil prices were higher during 2009-2013 and 2005-2007 than they are now, yet did not trigger an immediate economic downturn.
- If one is contemplating the onset of economic slowdown, the focus should be more on gold and copper rather than oil. Gold serves as a hedge asset that safely preserves asset value when liquidity expands indiscriminately. Due to this characteristic, it often reflects liquidity (interest rates, quantitative easing, etc.) 4-6 months earlier than leading economic assets like stocks (e.g., semiconductor sector).
- In this regard, discussing an economic recession based on today's soaring oil prices is premature. From a commodity perspective, it is a time that requires active sector rotation based on the economic cycle.
◆Major Disclosures After Market Close (September 17)
▷Naver Withdraws from Acquisition of Baedal Minjok: "Ultimately Decided Not to Proceed"
▷ABL Bio Responds to 'Pre-Disclosure Trading Allegations': "Will Cooperate Fully with Investigation"
▷Doosan to Invest 1 Trillion Won to Expand Production Lines for Copper Foil Laminates (CCL) in Korea and China: Set to Operate by 2028
◆Fund Trends (As of September 16, Excluding ETFs)
▷Domestic Equity Funds: +640.54 billion won
▷Overseas Equity Funds: +32.24 billion won
* This article has been translated by AI.
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