As Russia holds its first elections since the start of the Ukraine war, speculation is growing that President Vladimir Putin may initiate a large-scale troop mobilization afterward. This has heightened tensions in Europe, prompting countries to enhance security cooperation, including strengthening air defense systems, in response to Russia's potential troop increases.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Russia is conducting elections for 450 members of the State Duma (lower house) over three days, concluding on September 20. The voter turnout on the first day, September 18, was reported at 29.75%, with Moscow recording a turnout of 24.37%.
On the ground in Moscow, the election atmosphere appeared relatively calm. Some young voters expressed skepticism about the process, stating they wanted change but felt limited in their choices. Conversely, older voters reported casting their ballots with hopes for the future of their children and grandchildren. President Putin was seen participating in remote voting on the same day. The ruling United Russia party is expected to maintain its majority in the State Duma, a position it has held since 2003.
The concern lies in what happens after the elections. The UK daily Telegraph reported on September 18, citing Western intelligence sources, that Russia is preparing for a 'covert mobilization' instead of a public large-scale draft. An intelligence source indicated that administrative preparations are underway to enable swift action once a decision is made. The report also mentioned plans to accelerate the recruitment of contract soldiers and potentially conscript individuals awaiting trial, those in debt, or students struggling in university.
Bloomberg also cited related documents indicating that the possibility of a mobilization order is increasing among Kremlin and military officials. Given the significant backlash and mass exodus that occurred during the partial mobilization in September 2022, there is a possibility that this time, Russia may utilize digital infrastructure to quietly secure troops and block escape routes.
Russia's troop buildup is raising security concerns across Europe. European defense and security officials worry that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be a precursor to actions targeting NATO. In response, there have been movements to enhance defensive capabilities across Europe. According to Yonhap News Agency, Poland joined the 'Ballistic Missile Defense Alliance' formed by Ukraine and European nations in July, bringing the total number of participating countries to 11, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously warned of the possibility of Russian missile attacks on countries supporting Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron has also directed efforts to protect critical infrastructure against hybrid threats, including drone and cyberattacks from Russia.
As the Russian elections conclude, concerns are growing that the prolonged war and troop mobilization efforts could impact the security environment across Europe, extending beyond Ukraine.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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