Domestic exporters anticipate improved conditions in the fourth quarter, particularly in semiconductors, shipbuilding, and wireless communication devices. However, rising raw material prices, exchange rate volatility, and increased logistics costs continue to pose challenges to profitability.
The Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute reported on September 22 that the Export Business Sentiment Index (EBSI) for the fourth quarter stands at 111.3, a 4.3-point increase from the previous quarter. An EBSI above 100 indicates that more companies expect an improvement in export conditions compared to the previous quarter. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter that the index has exceeded the benchmark.
Among 15 sectors surveyed, seven expect improvements. Semiconductors lead with a score of 140.7, followed by shipbuilding at 138.0 and wireless communication devices and components at 134.3. Increased investment in artificial intelligence is driving demand for server memory, contributing to optimism as semiconductor prices remain high.
Shipbuilding benefits from a robust order backlog and new contracts stemming from the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. In contrast, consumer goods scored 79.0 and textiles and clothing 80.1, reflecting sluggish demand in major markets and price competition from products in China and Southeast Asia.
From September 1 to 20, exports reached $71.4 billion, a 78.3% increase compared to the same period last year, marking the highest level for that timeframe. Semiconductor exports alone hit a record $34.1 billion, bolstering companies' expectations for the fourth quarter.
In terms of specific metrics, export consultations and contracts scored 109.5, and equipment utilization rates were at 106.2, indicating a positive outlook. Financial conditions and the economic situation in export destinations also exceeded the benchmark.
Conversely, international logistics scored the lowest at 91.6. Raw material supply and procurement were at 95.6, while import regulations and trade friction stood at 95.8. The primary challenges for exporters included rising raw material prices at 20.4%, followed by exchange rate volatility at 16.5% and increased logistics costs at 15.2%.
Lee Jun-ho, a researcher at the Korea International Trade Association, stated, "We expect the trend of export improvement to continue in the fourth quarter, particularly in key sectors like semiconductors and shipbuilding. However, it is essential to manage risks and provide policy support to prevent external factors such as raw material prices, exchange rates, and logistics costs from negatively impacting corporate profitability."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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