The Korean baseball team suffered a blow to its pride after losing 0-5 to Japan, composed of amateur players. However, their journey toward a gold medal is not over yet. A victory against China on the 26th will secure their spot in the finals, regardless of the outcome of the Japan-Taiwan match.
Under the leadership of manager Ryu Ji-hyun, the Korean team faced Japan in the first match of the Super Round at the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games on September 25, where they were defeated 0-5.
This marks the first time since the 2006 Doha Games that a professional Korean team has lost to Japan's amateur squad.
After winning their group stage match against Taiwan 5-0, Korea's record now stands at one win and one loss in the Super Round.
Despite the painful defeat, the scenarios still favor Korea. They need to win against China, who has two losses, in their second Super Round match at 6:30 PM on the 26th. If Korea defeats China and Japan beats Taiwan (who has one win and one loss), Korea will advance to the finals with a record of two wins and one loss.
Conversely, if Taiwan defeats Japan, all three teams could end up with two wins and one loss. In this case, Korea's chances of advancing remain high due to the Team Quality Balance (TQB) calculation based on head-to-head results. The formula is '(runs scored/innings played) - (runs allowed/innings played)'.
Combining the results from the group stage against Taiwan and the Super Round against Japan, Korea's TQB among the three teams would be zero. This is because they recorded a total of 17 offensive innings (5 runs) and 17 defensive innings (5 runs allowed).
If Taiwan wins against Japan by five runs or fewer, Japan will rank first in TQB. If Taiwan wins by six runs or more, they will take the top spot. In either scenario, Korea is likely to advance to the finals.
However, the outlook for advancing hinges on a victory against China. If Korea, considered the stronger team, falters against China, the calculations will change. Should Taiwan defeat Japan, Korea would be eliminated from the finals and their quest for a fifth consecutive Asian Games gold would end. If Japan defeats Taiwan, Korea, Taiwan, and China would all have one win and two losses, leading to a complicated TQB calculation.
Starting for Korea against China will be right-hander Choi Min-seok of the Doosan Bears. He previously pitched in the group stage against Hong Kong on September 22, where he struck out two batters and did not allow any to reach base in two innings.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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