◆아주경제 주요뉴스
▷On September 27, Ajou Economics analyzed the first trading choices of new clients in their 20s and 30s at five major domestic securities firms for June and August. The analysis revealed a continued preference for large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in South Korea, while in the U.S. market, there has been a shift from individual growth stocks to index ETFs.
-In June, during their first overseas trades, individual growth stocks such as SpaceX and NVIDIA dominated the rankings, with leveraged ETFs like TQQQ, SOXL, and QLD also being popular choices. However, by August, index and dividend ETFs like VOO, QQQM, and SCHD rose to the top two positions, indicating a growing preference for diversified investments.
-This change is attributed to the extreme volatility experienced in June. The average number of volatility index (VI) triggers dropped by 39%, from 1,193.6 occurrences per day between May 27 and July 30 to 731.6 occurrences from July 31 to August 26.
-Industry analysts suggest that new investors in their 20s and 30s, having experienced this volatility, are now opting for ETFs that provide diversified exposure to the market rather than focusing on individual stocks. In South Korea, the ongoing optimism regarding the semiconductor sector has sustained interest in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
◆주요 리포트
▷Long-term interest rates hold at 5% [Daishin Securities]
-In September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reversed its stance on interest rates for the first time in three years, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to rise to 5% and 30-year bonds to 5.4%. However, unlike the sharp rise in rates seen in October 2023, the stock and bond markets are relatively stable.
-The increase in long-term rates this year is attributed more to economic growth and changes in inflation and monetary policy expectations following the U.S.-Iran conflict, rather than the burden of increased government debt supply. If the Federal Reserve's anticipated additional rate hikes remain within the expected 2-3 range, the upward trend in long-term rates is expected to stabilize.
-There is a low likelihood of a sharp economic downturn due to high interest rates in the near term. Current investments in AI, which are driving growth, are relatively insensitive to interest rates, while sectors sensitive to rates, such as housing, have already been underperforming for an extended period. However, the effects of rate hikes may be felt with a lag, leading to a gradual economic slowdown in the first half of next year.
-The exchange rate between the dollar and the won rebounded around the time of the Fed's rate hike, but if the increases are limited to 2-3 times, the strength and duration of the dollar's rise are expected to be constrained. Considering South Korea's substantial current account surplus, there is a possibility of a resumption of the won's strength, and if the growth and interest rate gap with the U.S. narrows, the dollar-won exchange rate could approach the 1,200 won level.
◆장 마감 후(23일) 주요공시
▷Samsung Pharmaceutical: Voluntarily withdrew the application for approval to change the clinical trial plan for GV 1001, a treatment for progressive nuclear encephalopathy.
▷Samil CNS: Received an order from Samsung C&T for PC construction (production and delivery of PC components) worth 12.797 billion won for the Pyeongtaek P5 FAB2 construction project.
▷Hyundai Rotem: Awarded a contract worth 344.5096 billion won for the supply of E&M for the Taoyuan Brown Line project from the Taoyuan City Government in Taiwan.
▷Celltrion: Approved the clinical trial plan for CT-P13 SC (Jimpenetra) in the U.S.
▷SK Biopharm: Signed a pharmaceutical supply contract worth 633.0539 billion won with its subsidiary SK Life Science.
▷Hanwha Systems: Entered into a supply contract with Hyundai Rotem.
◆펀드 동향(22일 기준, ETF 제외)
▷Domestic equity funds: -53.1 billion won
▷Overseas equity funds: 1.8 billion won
◆오늘(28일) 주요일정
▷China: Industrial profits (August)
▷Market closed: Taiwan
* This article has been translated by AI.
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