In the past, scenes of children playing baseball in vacant lots were common in Japanese manga. In 'Doraemon,' Nobita would call his friends to gather, showing off his new bat, while Shizuka reluctantly packed his glove. A grassy field piled with dirt became a baseball diamond. Kids would run around dribbling a ball like the protagonist from 'Captain Tsubasa.' If a ball hit a neighbor's window, they would scatter at the sound of a scolding, only to return to playing until sunset.
Now, such vacant lots are hard to find in Japan. While parks have increased, many are marked with signs prohibiting ball games. In the country of Shohei Ohtani, the population of elementary school baseball players has decreased by 40% over the past decade.
In stark contrast, the scene at professional sports venues is thriving. Last year, Japan's professional baseball drew a record 27.04 million spectators, while the J-League, including cup competitions, attracted 13.5 million fans, also a record high. By 2030, about 30 new indoor stadiums are expected to open.
However, the Japan Baseball Association reported that the number of elementary school baseball players in 2023 was only 170,409, combining both hardball and softball. The number of registered soccer players in the same age group also fell by 11% over the past decade, totaling around 270,000 last year. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) noted that the decline in children participating in sports is happening faster than the overall decrease in the child population due to low birth rates.
Teenagers attending games are also dwindling. According to the Sasakawa Sports Foundation, the percentage of 12 to 19-year-olds who attended live sports events in 2023 was 30.5%, down more than 10 percentage points from 2011. A separate survey of those aged 18 and older indicated that the attendance rate in 2024 was 5.5 percentage points lower than in 2012.
The cost of attending a game is significant. Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting reported that the average ticket price for sports events in 2024 is expected to be 4,527 yen (about $39), a 44% increase from a decade ago. The cheapest outfield seats for the opening game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs at Tokyo Dome last March were priced at 5,500 yen, while seats behind home plate reached 150,000 yen.
Watching games at home has also become more expensive. Many professional baseball and national soccer team games that were previously broadcast on free channels have shifted to paid services. The sports streaming service DAZN raised its basic monthly fee to 4,200 yen in 2024, more than double the price from three years ago. The Nikkei highlighted that the rising costs of sports viewing have made it a luxury for adults.
As the barriers to watching sports increase, scenes of children enjoying baseball with friends have become rare. A 2025 survey by the Sasakawa Sports Foundation found that only 16.1% of 10- to 11-year-olds played baseball at least once a year, roughly one in six. Daisuke Yoshioka, secretary-general of the All Japan Softball Association, expressed concern, stating, "If this continues, baseball will lose its place." Despite the emergence of global star Shohei Ohtani, the trend of declining youth sports participation persists.
One of the biggest issues is the lack of space for children to play freely. The number of urban parks in Japan has increased by about 30% over the past 20 years. However, a 2019 survey revealed that more than half of municipalities with populations over 100,000 have banned or restricted ball games in their parks. In Tokyo, this rate exceeds 80%.
Professor Mitsunari Terada of Nihon University, who conducted the survey, noted that restrictions have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic, stating, "There are no places for elementary and middle school students to play."
Even joining little league teams or soccer clubs does not resolve the space issue. In urban areas, clubs compete for limited practice fields. The FC Tripletta soccer club in Shibuya, Tokyo, which has about 180 elementary school members, struggles to schedule training across multiple fields. Coach Takayuki Yonehara remarked, "It’s hard to find a proper place to practice."
Financial concerns are even more pressing. A woman in her 40s raising two children in Hyogo Prefecture lamented that the monthly fee for her younger son's soccer club increased by over 1,000 yen last April, saying, "The more sports you enroll them in, the more it costs." Annual expenses, including travel fees, approached 200,000 yen. She expressed that even attending games as a family feels out of reach.
This is not an isolated case. A survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs found that the monthly fee for swimming classes in Tokyo's 23 wards is expected to reach 9,079 yen in 2024, an increase of about 2,000 yen from a decade ago. Baseball and tennis also face rising equipment costs. Concerns have been raised that if middle school sports programs shift to private clubs, the financial burden could increase further.
For dual-income families, time is also a challenge. Parents often bear the responsibility of transporting children to training and supporting them during practice. The All Japan Softball Association has even issued notices to its branches and teams urging them not to impose such burdens on parents, yet the decline in baseball participation continues.
Ultimately, opportunities to learn sports are becoming increasingly dependent on a family's financial situation and available time, leading to a widening "sports gap."
A 2022 survey by the nonprofit organization Chance for Children found that 63.5% of children from households earning less than 3 million yen annually did not participate in sports lessons or club activities even once a week, a rate more than 20 percentage points higher than those from households earning over 6 million yen.
Professor Norihiro Shimizu of Tsukuba University, co-author of a study on "children's sports gap," pointed out that only families with financial means can afford to invest in their children's sports activities, exacerbating the disparity.
The problem is that this gap also leads to a decrease in children's regular physical activity. A survey conducted by the Sasakawa Sports Foundation from September last year to February this year found that elementary school students spent about 30 minutes a day playing outdoors. About 60% of both boys and girls moved for more than 60 minutes a day on fewer than four days a week, indicating a lack of exercise.
Professor Tetsuhiro Kidokoro of Nihon University emphasized that polarization is occurring, with some children engaging in sports while many others do not, and called for creating an environment where children naturally want to play.
The Nikkei noted that firsthand experience in sports helps cultivate fans who understand the skills and value of athletes, and that increasing such fans is essential for deepening sports culture. Relying solely on post-COVID consumption and fandom trends for profitability may not ensure sustainability. Returning vacant lots to children is crucial for the sports industry to nurture the next generation of athletes and fans.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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