North Korea Remains Silent on Return of Two Captured Soldiers to South Korea

North Korea's silence regarding the return of two captured soldiers to South Korea has escalated tensions between South Korea and Ukraine, but the North has yet to issue an official response. Analysts suggest that this 'strategic silence' may stem from concerns that the soldiers' choice to return to South Korea could undermine the narrative of heroism surrounding North Korean troops deployed abroad.

According to the Unification Ministry on September 28, there have been no unusual developments or responses from North Korea regarding the soldiers' return. A ministry official stated, "We have not identified any trends so far and will continue to monitor the situation."

North Korea has remained silent since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed the soldiers' return during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23. North Korean media has not reported on the soldiers' return or the ensuing conflict between South Korea and Ukraine.

Experts believe that North Korea's silence may be due to the fact that publicly condemning the return would acknowledge the soldiers' survival and their choice to go to South Korea.

Historically, North Korea has portrayed its deployed soldiers in Russia as heroes fulfilling national orders. However, the fact that these captured soldiers chose to go to South Korea instead of returning to North Korea directly contradicts the narrative of loyalty and sacrifice that the regime has promoted. If it becomes known among the populace and military that the soldiers preferred to go to South Korea, it could negatively impact the morale of deployed troops and future deployments.

As a result, there is speculation that North Korea may maintain its silence for now while observing the soldiers' resettlement process and any public activities. Should the soldiers participate in media interviews or public testimonies, North Korea could launch a counter-offensive, claiming that South Korea and Ukraine are attempting to politically exploit them.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, stated, "The return of North Korean soldiers to South Korea could be a significant blemish and a fatal blow to North Korea's efforts to portray its deployed soldiers as heroes, for whom it has even established monuments and ceremonies. Unless the soldiers engage in public activities that criticize the realities of deployment or the North Korean regime, North Korea is likely to respond to this issue at a low intensity without escalating it further."

The ongoing conflict between South Korea and Ukraine over the public disclosure of the soldiers' return also reduces the urgency for North Korea to respond quickly. Even without direct involvement, the diplomatic discord between the two countries has exposed potential behind-the-scenes agreements.

The South Korean government revealed that it had requested Ukraine not to disclose the return of the soldiers due to concerns over domestic criticism regarding Ukraine's abandonment of the opportunity for a prisoner exchange. The South Korean side also agreed to keep the matter private, considering the safety of the soldiers and their families remaining in North Korea, as well as the diplomatic and security implications.

However, following Zelensky's announcement at the UN and Ukraine's denial of any non-disclosure agreement, tensions have escalated. The South Korean government has labeled Ukraine's statement as "false information" and is demanding an official clarification and apology.

The public clash between the two countries has already been utilized in Russian propaganda. Russia has claimed since the initial emergence of the North Korean military deployment issue that South Korea and Ukraine are politically exploiting related allegations. Andrei Rudenko, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, criticized the cooperation between South Korea and Ukraine, alleging that the West and NATO are attempting to portray Seoul as an accomplice of the Zelensky regime.

The implications of this situation for future North Korea-U.S. dialogue are also noteworthy. North Korea has characterized inter-Korean relations as involving "hostile states" and has labeled South Korea as a participant in the U.S. hostile policy toward the North, rather than a dialogue partner. If North Korea defines the involvement of the South Korean government and intelligence agencies in the soldiers' return as a "hostile act," it could argue that South Korea should be excluded from any future negotiations, insisting on direct talks with the U.S.

Professor Park added, "Given that North Korea has already declared that it will not engage with South Korea, it is highly likely that it will seek to prevent any South Korean involvement at any stage of the dialogue process and outcomes. This situation could serve as an additional justification for reinforcing the narrative of excluding South Korea and heightening North Korea's hostile perception of the South."