Micron Technology is forecasting an exceptional gross margin of 86%, indicating a continued boom in the memory semiconductor market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also expected to report improved third-quarter results, driven by rising DRAM and NAND prices. However, the strengthening of the Korean won may reduce the dollar-equivalent revenue, potentially falling short of market expectations. Analysts suggest that the exchange rate is diminishing some of the benefits of the boom.
According to the semiconductor industry, Micron will announce its fourth-quarter results for fiscal year 2026 on September 30 (local time). The company previously indicated it expects to achieve $50 billion in revenue with a gross margin of approximately 86%. Following record results in the previous quarter due to increased demand for DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), this announcement is seen as a leading indicator for Samsung and SK Hynix ahead of their October earnings reports.
The trend in memory prices is also favorable. Market research firm TrendForce raised its fourth-quarter DRAM contract price forecast on September 23, citing supply shortages and robust demand from cloud service providers (CSPs). NAND prices are also expected to rise due to increased demand for enterprise SSDs driven by AI agents processing large volumes of data. Enterprise SSD prices are projected to increase by 23% to 28% compared to the previous quarter. This suggests that the impact of AI server investments is outweighing the weakness in PC and smartphone demand.
Domestic companies are also expected to see significant profit increases in the third quarter. According to financial information provider FnGuide, the consensus for Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit is 111.37 trillion won, while SK Hynix is projected at 78.12 trillion won. Combined, the operating profit for both companies is expected to exceed 189 trillion won.
However, the exchange rate remains a variable. DS Investment & Securities estimates Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's third-quarter operating profits at 104 trillion won and 70.1 trillion won, respectively, which are about 7 trillion won and 8 trillion won below market consensus. The primary reason cited is an approximately 11% drop in the won-dollar exchange rate compared to the end of the second quarter. SK Hynix has also adjusted its third-quarter exchange rate assumption from 1,430 won to 1,370 won.
This does not indicate a downturn in the overall market. Samsung Electronics has seen increased costs in its mobile and home appliance divisions, while SK Hynix has experienced changes in shipment composition and revenue recognition timing during its transition to next-generation HBM.
Attention is focused on Micron's conference call on September 30. The company's insights on fourth-quarter memory prices and next year's supply shortage outlook could influence the profit expectations for domestic companies in the fourth quarter. If the upward price trend is confirmed, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may have the opportunity to revise their profit forecasts upward despite exchange rate pressures.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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