After 23 years since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the last American troops have been withdrawn from the country. The Pentagon announced on September 30 that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq has been completed. Considering that U.S. troops had previously withdrawn in 2011 only to return in 2014 due to the rise of the Islamic State (IS), the U.S. involvement in Iraq has effectively spanned a generation.
The costs of the war have been immense. The U.S. has spent approximately $3 trillion on the conflict, and 4,500 American service members lost their lives. Moreover, the U.S. missed critical opportunities to focus on major competitors like China and Russia while being tied down in Iraq. In contrast, the outcomes of the U.S. intervention remain unclear. The justification for the invasion, which centered on the existence of weapons of mass destruction, was ultimately unfounded, and the establishment of a democratic government has faced prolonged turmoil.
The fragile democracy that barely persists in Iraq may face further challenges following the U.S. withdrawal. Similar to the chaos that ensued in Afghanistan after the U.S. troop withdrawal in 2021, Iraq could also experience increased instability, with Iranian-backed militias likely to expand their influence during this period.
The most significant failure of the U.S. in the Iraq War was not a lack of military power but a fundamental misunderstanding of Iraq itself. U.S. officials believed that removing Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath Party would lead to a smooth transition to democracy. However, the Ba'ath Party had deeply entrenched itself in Iraq's political and social fabric, and the collapse of the regime created a vast political vacuum that led to clashes among Shiite militias, Iranian factions, and Sunni Islamist groups.
Ultimately, the U.S. expected a swift victory akin to the overwhelming military success of the 1991 Gulf War, but instead found itself mired in a protracted conflict. While Saddam Hussein was captured less than a year after the war began, it took 23 years for the U.S. to fully withdraw from Iraq. The distinction between military victory and the end of war proved to be significant.
Now, the U.S. finds itself entangled in another conflict, this time with Iran. In February, the U.S. launched large-scale airstrikes in collaboration with Israel, targeting Iranian leaders, including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, the war has not concluded. Instead, it has expanded beyond the initial focus on Iran's nuclear development to include regional conflicts involving the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon, Yemen's Houthis, and Saudi Arabia.
In this context, the questions the U.S. must confront are not about how quickly it can achieve victory, but rather who it is fighting, what the adversary desires, and what constitutes victory. These are the questions the U.S. overlooked in Iraq. Entering military operations without clearly defining war objectives and post-war order can lead to unforeseen variables that prolong conflict, as the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have painfully illustrated. However, there are doubts about whether the current Trump administration has answers to these questions.
As it took 23 years to hear the news of the end of the Iraq War, one wonders when we will hear about the conclusion of the war with Iran. The anticipation for that moment is palpable.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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