In Brazil's presidential election first round held on October 4, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) unexpectedly topped the polls, surpassing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
According to reports from the BBC and others, with 99.99% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the votes, while President Lula, representing the Workers' Party (PT), garnered 45.16%.
Neither candidate achieved a majority, necessitating a runoff on October 25. Brazilian election law stipulates that if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates must face off in a second round.
Thirteen candidates participated in the election, but only Bolsonaro and Lula received more than 3% of the votes. With the runoff now a two-candidate race, a fierce contest is anticipated.
Approximately 8% of votes cast for other candidates are expected to be a crucial factor in the runoff. Analysts suggest that many of these voters lean right, potentially shifting their support to Bolsonaro.
In a speech following the announcement of the first round results, Bolsonaro declared the “end of the Workers' Party era,” expressing confidence that he had dealt a significant blow to Lula's leftist coalition. He stated, “We can create a government that is better than my father's.”
Bolsonaro, a senator affiliated with the Liberal Party, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who narrowly lost to Lula in the 2022 runoff by just 1.8 percentage points.
Bolsonaro has focused on addressing voter concerns over high living costs, household debt, and crime, advocating for reduced government spending and fiscal responsibility. His alignment with the Trump administration in the U.S. has also helped consolidate support among conservative voters.
If Bolsonaro defeats Lula in the runoff, it could signal the spread of right-wing governance in Brazil, part of a broader trend known as the “Blue Tide,” which has seen right-leaning leaders win in several Latin American countries, including Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, Costa Rica, and Chile since late last year.
Conversely, if Lula manages to overturn his first-round deficit and win, it could halt the momentum of the Blue Tide and introduce uncertainties into Trump's plans for Latin America.
Lula has consistently opposed Trump's interventions, asserting, “Brazil is not anyone's backyard.” He has characterized Bolsonaro as a puppet of the U.S. and criticized the Trump administration for attempting to influence Brazil's elections to secure access to its vast natural resources.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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