SEOUL, October 06 (AJP) - A former commander of U.S. Forces Korea warned that transferring wartime operational control from Washington to Seoul according to a fixed timetable could increase military risks if key conditions are not fully met.
Retired Gen. Robert Abrams, who led USFK from November 2018 to July 2021, said on a Center for Strategic and International Studies podcast Monday that the existing conditions-based transition plan was designed to strengthen both the allies’ combined defense posture and deterrence against North Korea.
“From my perspective and experience, I think there's a lot of risk that hasn't been properly been explained to everyone about hastening this (OPCON transfer) and putting it on a timeline,” Abrams said.
“Time-based fundamentally just increases risk and the risk is because there's still going to be operational shortfalls on the ROK military side,” he added, referring to South Korea by the acronym of its official name, the Republic of Korea.
Abrams said the conditions-based approach was intended to ensure South Korea has the capabilities needed to lead the combined defense, warning that moving ahead on a fixed timetable could leave critical gaps in readiness and deterrence.
He stressed that Seoul and Washington “need to make sure that we have sufficient force and capability on the [Korean] peninsula and in the region to be able to adequately deter North Korea.”
The allies agreed in 2014 to pursue a conditions-based OPCON transition rather than setting a specific deadline. The framework requires South Korea to demonstrate its ability to lead the allies' combined defense, secure key capabilities to respond to North Korean threats and ensure that the regional security environment is conducive to the transfer.
Gen. Xavier Brunson, the current USFK commander, has previously stressed that military readiness should not be overridden by political considerations in determining the timing of the transition. He cited the first quarter of 2029 last year as a target for meeting the required conditions, while Seoul has internally considered completing the transfer as early as 2027 or 2028.
Abrams also challenged a previous assessment that South Korea had completed 92 percent of the requirements for the OPCON transition in 2020.
“Let me just be clear. That is not consistent with the facts,” Abrams said. “I was the commander in Korea in 2020 ... and they were nowhere close to being 92 percent.”
While noting that he does not have access to classified information on South Korea's current progress, Abrams said he was “fairly assured that there's still a number of shortfalls.”
Abrams said he understood Seoul's desire to accelerate the transfer in the name of sovereignty but cautioned that an emphasis on unilateral military authority could have broader implications for the allies' current command and cooperation structure.
He also raised concerns that an OPCON transition, coupled with possible changes in the U.S. force posture in South Korea, could create greater room for North Korea to misread the allies' intentions.
Abrams pointed to misunderstanding, miscalculation and mistake as major factors that can lead to renewed hostilities, warning that there is currently significant room for Pyongyang to misinterpret developments surrounding the alliance.
The former commander said the ultimate decision on the OPCON transition would be made by political leaders and diplomats, while military commanders should continue providing advice aimed at reducing risk and strengthening deterrence and defense.
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