As evening falls over a rental apartment near Tokyo, a 30-year-old office worker living alone returns from dinner at a restaurant near the station. On the floor below, an 80-year-old woman, who moved here after losing her husband, still lives alone despite being closer to her children’s homes. Next door, a Japanese-Vietnamese couple welcomed their first child last year. In this building, the sound of a baby crying can be heard only from their apartment.
This scene reflects the findings of Japan's national census, which shows that among single-person households, the largest group of men is aged 25 to 34, while for women, it is those aged 75 to 84. Single-person households now account for 40% of all households, and for the first time, they make up over 30% of private rental housing. The largest group of foreign infants is of Vietnamese nationality, and the proportion of children under 15 is at a record low of 10.9%. While the population has decreased by 3.17 million over the past five years, the number of households has reached an all-time high.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the confirmed total population, including foreigners, was 122,972,528 as of October 1 last year, marking a decrease of 3,173,571 from five years ago—the largest drop on record. All prefectures, except Tokyo, saw population declines. In contrast, the number of households increased by 2.7% to 57,324,619, the highest since comparable records began in 1970, with an average of 2.10 people per household, the lowest ever recorded. The census, conducted every five years, surveys all residents and households in Japan, including foreigners, similar to the national population and housing census in other countries.
A notable change in this census is the widening gap between children and the elderly. The proportion of those under 15 years old has decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 10.9%, the lowest ever recorded. This figure is second only to South Korea (10.2%) among the G7 countries and China. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 65 and older is 29.4%, the highest among these countries. The percentage of those aged 75 and older is 17.2%, surpassing that of children, and in 46 prefectures excluding Okinawa, there are more individuals aged 75 and older than children.
Asahi Shimbun reports that the population aged 75 and older is growing particularly rapidly in urban areas surrounding Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka. This trend is attributed to younger generations moving away from city centers. The increase in the elderly population is also placing a greater burden on local governments for care services. Ichikawa Tatsuki, a professor at Tohoku Gakuin University, stated, "The baby boomer generation born between 1947 and 1949 has recently surpassed the age of 75. The surge in local government spending on care services is just beginning now." This phenomenon, driven by the aging of the baby boomer generation, is referred to in Japan as the "2025 problem," highlighting the growing demand for care and the burden on social security.
The acceleration of aging in urban areas is not solely due to the aging of existing residents. Nakazawa Katsuyoshi, a professor analyzing the Basic Resident Register, found that individuals aged 75 and older tend to move to urban areas with convenient transportation and care facilities. This shift is influenced by lower living costs compared to city centers and proximity to children and grandchildren. He speculated that some children may invite their parents to live with them for care. The majority of these movers are women, many of whom may find it difficult to live alone after losing their husbands. To predict future care demands, it is essential to consider not only the current age composition of residents but also the mobility of the elderly.
Another significant change accompanying aging is the rise in single-person households, which is the main reason for the increase in the number of households despite a declining population. Single-person households have grown by 12% over the past five years to approximately 23.69 million, now accounting for 41.4% of all households, surpassing 40% for the first time. Among these, 34.4% are aged 65 and older. The demographics of those living alone vary by gender and age, with the largest group of men being aged 25 to 34 (approximately 2.38 million) and the largest group of women being aged 75 to 84 (approximately 2.25 million).
Spending patterns also differ. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), Naoko Kuga, a senior researcher at Nissay Institute for Research, explained that single-person households among men under 34 spend a higher proportion on dining out and socializing compared to other demographics. Additionally, as the number of single-person households without family members to share household chores increases, demand for services like housekeeping is expected to rise.
Housing types are also changing. The proportion of households living in private rental housing has reached 30.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from five years ago, surpassing 30% for the first time since comparable records began in 1970. The homeownership rate is 60.7%, down 0.7 percentage points. Nikkei attributes this to rising housing prices and the increase in single-person households. In Tokyo's 23 wards, where there is a high concentration of students and young people, the proportion of private rentals reaches 48.3%.
The increase in foreign residents is also notable. The number of foreigners has risen by 39.8% over the past five years to approximately 3.84 million, accounting for 3.1% of the total population, marking the highest figures both in number and proportion. By nationality, the largest group is from China (approximately 920,000), followed by Vietnam (approximately 610,000), which has surpassed the combined total of South Korean and Chosen nationality residents. The term "Korean and Chosen" refers to South Korean nationals and those with Chosen nationality in Japanese statistics, where Chosen nationality does not imply North Korean citizenship. Nationals from Southeast Asian countries, such as Myanmar (5.7 times) and Indonesia (4 times), have surged in number over the past five years, with most being in the working-age group of 15 to 64 years. In contrast, the number of South Korean and Chosen nationals has decreased by 8.3% to about 400,000, with 30.6% of them aged 65 and older, a higher proportion than the overall population of Japan.
The number of foreign families is also increasing. Couples consisting of a Japanese and a foreign national have risen by 5.9% to approximately 410,000 pairs, while couples where both partners are foreign nationals have increased by 41.4% to about 380,000 pairs. This data reflects the number of couples at the time of the survey, not annual marriage statistics. By nationality, the largest groups are from China, South Korea and Chosen, and the Philippines.
The composition of children is also changing. Although the overall proportion of children is at a record low, the number of foreign children under 15 has increased by 34.2% over the past five years to approximately 300,000. The analysis by Nikkei indicates that the number of births in Japan is rising as more foreign nationals in their 20s and 30s are living in the country. Among foreign infants aged 0 to 4, Vietnamese nationals number around 27,000, having increased 3.2 times over five years.
However, there are concerns that social security systems are not keeping pace with these changes. Nikkei points out that Japan's social security system was designed based on the traditional model of a "standard household" where a man earns and supports a spouse and children. However, the proportion of households consisting of couples and children has decreased from 40.0% in 1985 to 23.3% in 2025. The percentage of individuals aged 15 and older with a spouse is at a record low of 53.3%, while the proportion of unmarried individuals has risen to 31.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points. Support for single employees in private companies is still lacking compared to those with families.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projects that the proportion of single-person households will rise to 44.3% by 2050. Takumi Fujinami, a senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, stated, "The number of elderly individuals living alone will continue to rise, and social security costs will keep increasing. The traditional Japanese value of family support is becoming less relevant in today's society."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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