The winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, which will conclude the 2026 Nobel Prize season, will be announced on October 12. The announcement is scheduled for 11:45 a.m. local time in Stockholm, Sweden, or 6:45 p.m. in South Korea.
According to AFP, this year, strong candidate fields include monetary policy, technology, behavioral economics, and development economics. Last year, the prize was jointly awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their research on how technology drives and impacts economic growth. AFP reported predictions for this year's candidates based on interviews with economic experts.
Experts believe the likelihood of a winner emerging from the same fields as last year is low. Richard Toll, an economics professor at the University of Sussex, stated, "There is a clear underground deal within the Nobel Committee among factions, where 'if you support my candidate this year, I will support yours next year.'" Toll predicts that the committee is likely to select Colin Camerer and George Loewenstein from the United States for their work in behavioral economics.
David Pendlebury from Clarivate, a research organization that tracks highly cited academic research, also identified monetary policy as a strong field, naming Michael Woodford as a potential candidate.
Toll mentioned that if the committee aims to send a "political message," they might consider Anne Krueger from the United States and Jagdish Bhagwati, an Indian-American, for their research on lobbying and government corruption. He also suggested strong candidates in development economics, including Tim Besley from the UK, Guido Tabellini from Italy, and Deirdre McCloskey from the United States.
According to Toll's predictive model, candidates from four other fields could also be in contention this year.
In the information and networks field, Sanford Grossman and Matthew Jackson from the United States are strong contenders, while in economic growth, Robert Barro and David Weil from the United States, along with Jill Stein from France, are potential candidates. In international trade, Gene Grossman and Mark Melitz from the United States, along with Elhanan Helpman from Israel, could be in the running, and in international economics, Barry Eichengreen and Kenneth Rogoff from the United States are mentioned alongside Carmen Reinhart.
The possibility of a female scholar winning the prize has also been raised. Morten Pedersen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen, noted, "While the number is still very small, it is clear that more women are receiving awards and are fully qualified." American economist Susan Athey, who has explored how new technologies change markets and public policy, has consistently been on the radar of Nobel observers for several years. Among the 99 Nobel laureates in Economic Sciences, only three have been women, all of whom received the award after 2000.
However, Tore Ellingsen, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and former chair of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences committee, emphasized that "gender balance and diversity should not interfere" with the selection process, stating, "What matters is the academic weight of the research contributions and their practical significance."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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