Seoul is expected to relocate a total of 176,000 homes as part of its plan to begin construction on 310,000 homes by 2031. Amid concerns about instability in the rental market due to large-scale urban renewal projects, the city stated that the annual relocation volume will be similar to past averages, indicating it is manageable.
On October 19, during a National Assembly audit by the Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon responded to a question from Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Yong-sun regarding the demand for relocation and its impact on the rental market. Oh stated, "The relocation volume from 2027 to 2028 is expected to be around 20,000 homes per year, which is nearly the same as the average over the past decade," adding, "We believe this is manageable."
Lee emphasized the need for systematic management of the impact on the rental market alongside the expansion of housing supply, noting that the loss of existing homes and the relocation of residents are inevitable during large-scale urban renewal projects. He pointed out that the actual net increase in housing from the urban renewal projects may be smaller than anticipated.
Lee argued that while the city estimates a net increase of about 87,000 homes from the 310,000 construction plan, some urban renewal sites have shown lower net increase rates than initially projected. He explained, "In cases of redevelopment, the actual number of households often decreases," suggesting that simply increasing the number of homes does not necessarily equate to a supply benefit, especially when multiple households reside in a single existing unit.
In response, Mayor Oh countered that statistics from the past three years indicate a housing increase effect of about 30% for redevelopment and approximately 50% for reconstruction. He also provided specific estimates regarding the scale of relocations due to urban renewal projects.
Oh explained, "To achieve the construction of 310,000 homes by 2031, excluding the 46,000 homes already relocated, a total of 176,000 homes are scheduled for sequential relocation." He reiterated that the annual relocation volume for 2027-2028 is expected to be around 20,000 homes, similar to the average over the past decade, allowing for overall demand management.
Seoul also emphasized that relocations from urban renewal projects will not be concentrated solely in nearby apartments. Oh noted that based on past relocation patterns, about 80% of households relocating from redevelopment projects move to non-apartment residences, with approximately 20% relocating to areas adjacent to Seoul.
Considering the demand for relocation and housing supply in ten cities adjacent to Seoul, the city anticipates that by 2031, supply will exceed demand by 113,000 homes. The projected average annual housing supply from 2026 to 2028 is also estimated at around 55,000 homes.
However, Mayor Oh acknowledged that even if the overall supply is sufficient, temporary imbalances in housing supply and demand may occur in specific areas. He stated, "I am providing overall average figures, but there may be local mismatches in supply and demand. In such cases, it is a policy challenge that the city and local districts must address by carefully determining the order of relocations and adjusting the relocation volume to ensure there are no issues."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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