Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election has brought relief to China. The defeat of far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, who promised to strengthen ties with the United States, allows China to maintain its strategic partnership with Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America. There are expectations that the two countries will enhance cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and minerals.
President Lula won the Brazilian presidential runoff held on October 25, securing 51.79% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%. At 80 years old, Lula has now secured his fourth presidential term. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a right-wing politician close to U.S. President Donald Trump, had pledged to strengthen relations with the U.S.
Shortly after Lula's victory was announced, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a congratulatory message. Spokesperson Mao Ning stated, "China respects the choice of the Brazilian people" and expressed readiness to continue promoting the construction of a 'China-Brazil community of shared future.' China's welcome of Lula's re-election suggests a greater likelihood that Brazil will maintain an independent foreign policy amid increasing U.S. influence. During the election campaign, Lula emphasized, "Brazil is not anyone's backyard," cautioning against U.S. intervention.
According to the South China Morning Post, the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) assessed that Lula's re-election allows China to maintain close ties with Latin America's largest economy. Both Lula and China share goals of a multipolar international order and an expanded role for the Global South. The two countries have collaborated through BRICS on reforms of international financial institutions and reducing dependence on the dollar in international trade.
Had Bolsonaro won, Brazil's foreign policy might have tilted toward the U.S., creating uncertainty for BRICS cooperation. Bolsonaro has expressed skepticism about the role of BRICS and the plan to reduce dollar dependence. Some analysts predicted that a Bolsonaro victory could have led to Brazil's withdrawal from BRICS.
Lula's re-election is expected to expand cooperation between Brazil and China beyond trade into advanced industries. Chinese companies have been increasing investments in Brazil's power infrastructure, manufacturing, and mining sectors. Electric vehicle manufacturers BYD and Great Wall Motors have established production bases in Brazil. Notably, during Lula's visit to China in May of last year, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on AI cooperation and a plan for sustainable mining collaboration. In July of the same year, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and President Lula confirmed plans to expand cooperation in the digital economy, green economy, scientific and technological innovation, and aerospace.
China is particularly interested in Brazil's abundant critical mineral resources. Brazil is estimated to have the second-largest reserves of rare earth elements in the world. The U.S. is also seeking to reduce its dependence on China for critical mineral supply chains by enhancing cooperation with Brazil. For Brazil, leveraging the investment demands of both the U.S. and China could foster the development of its domestic mineral refining and processing industries, increasing added value.
President Lula is expected to pursue a pragmatic approach, strengthening ties with China while maintaining economic relations with the U.S. Therefore, his re-election does not necessarily indicate a shift toward pro-China policies. Instead, Brazil is likely to seek to capitalize on the competition between the two powers to secure investments and technology transfers.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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