Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are reshaping the memory semiconductor supply chain, raising concerns about potential shortages extending beyond next year and into 2028. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have both declared full sales of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) at least until next year, suggesting that the semiconductor rally is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
According to industry sources, market research firms anticipate supply shortages to persist until 2027. TrendForce noted last month that limited production capacity for HBM and general DRAM is contributing to these constraints, predicting that the average selling price (ASP) for HBM will rise by 121% in 2027 compared to this year. Additionally, it forecasts a 10-15% increase in contract prices for general DRAM in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. Counterpoint Research projected that the growth of the memory market will continue until the first half of 2027, although it added that increased supply from new facilities could lead to price adjustments in the latter half of 2027.
Both companies provided their forecasts for 2028. During a conference call on October 29, Samsung stated that, based on insights from market research firms, tight supply conditions are expected to persist into 2028. This is attributed to the long lead times for new fabs, making it difficult for next year's investment increases to contribute to production by 2028. On October 28, SK Hynix indicated that customer demand exceeds its supply capacity by more than double, predicting shortages will last until 2030.
However, the level of confirmed full sales varies between the two companies. SK Hynix described its situation as 'effectively' sold out until 2029, combining long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with specific customer demand currently under negotiation. The confirmed LTAs exceed 50% of the production capacity for 2027-2028, but the scale of the negotiated quantities and the conditions for contract conversion have not been disclosed, indicating that not all quantities are under confirmed contracts. Samsung clearly stated that it has sold out of HBM for 2027 and is negotiating multi-year contracts with ten major customers, aiming to fill 60-70% of its production capacity with long-term contracts by 2030.
However, securing contracts does not guarantee price increases. TrendForce noted that the price increases for server DRAM from some companies may fall below market averages due to the LTA pricing mechanisms.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2027, there are variables to consider. While Counterpoint mentioned the possibility of price adjustments due to increased supply, TrendForce expects supply shortages to continue until 2027, citing constraints in HBM production capacity and demand from AI servers. The outlook for 2028 from both companies relies on their explanations, which may differ from market research firms. The industry believes that if AI memory demand absorbs the increased supply after expansions, the boom could continue beyond 2028. However, if order adjustments or accelerated expansions occur, the upward price trend may reverse sooner.
An industry insider stated, "Whether the boom lasts until 2028 requires a comprehensive analysis of the confirmed contract sizes, actual shipment volumes, pricing conditions, and the growth of AI investments, rather than solely relying on the term 'full sales' used by semiconductor companies." Nonetheless, they emphasized that semiconductor supply shortages are likely to persist at least until the first half of next year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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