U.S. Midterm Elections: Agricultural Trade Policies Expected to Remain Steady

As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the balance of power in Congress may shift, but expectations are that the Trump administration's focus on domestic priorities and the expansion of agricultural exports will remain unchanged. Concerns are growing that the U.S. will continue to press South Korea to address agricultural trade barriers, potentially increasing pressure on the country.

According to the "2026 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers" published by the Korea Rural Economic Institute on November 4, the U.S. is expanding its scope of trade issues with South Korea beyond existing agricultural trade matters, including import volume management, quarantine and approval procedures, and food labeling regulations.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) highlighted in this year's report the restrictions on imports of beef from cattle over 30 months old and processed beef, as well as delays in quarantine approvals for horticultural products such as apples, pears, and strawberries. Additionally, it raised concerns about the operation of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for edible soybeans, the expansion of labeling requirements for genetically modified foods, and the allowable residue standards for livestock products.

This approach indicates that the U.S. is framing trade issues not only around market access for individual agricultural products but also around domestic regulatory practices and policy design. The Korea Rural Economic Institute anticipates that the U.S. will continue to use negotiation tools such as tariffs to push for expanded market access for agricultural products. This underscores the need for proactive strategies that link domestic agricultural policies with trade issues.

Experts predict that the U.S. agricultural trade stance will largely remain intact after the midterm elections. While the political dynamics in Congress may alter the level of oversight on the administration, the fundamental direction of expanding overseas sales of U.S. agricultural products is unlikely to change.

Jung Dae-hee, a researcher at the Korea Rural Economic Institute, stated, "While the midterm elections may bring changes to the political landscape in the U.S., the commitment to sell more domestic products abroad will not waver. However, the intensity with which demands for market opening or purchases of U.S. goods are made may vary."

The revision of the U.S. Farm Bill is also a variable to consider. This legislation, which encompasses support for farm incomes, crop insurance, and assistance for exploring overseas markets, is currently under discussion in Congress. The House passed a revision in April, and the Senate Agriculture Committee approved a separate bill in September. Future congressional discussions may adjust the scale of agricultural subsidies and export support.

Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has allocated $285 million for agricultural export promotion programs this year, with plans for similar funding next year. These programs support overseas marketing, promotional activities, and the discovery of new trading partners for producer organizations and businesses.

If such support leads to an expansion of U.S. agricultural and livestock product sales in the South Korean market, domestic farmers may face increased pressure regarding prices and distribution competition. Particularly, as the U.S. continues to demand the easing of import restrictions on beef and horticultural products, the expansion of export support could coincide with additional pressures for market opening.

In this context, a Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs official remarked, "We do not anticipate any significant changes based on the midterm election results. It seems unlikely that this will lead to South Korea purchasing agricultural products it has not previously bought or opening markets that have not been opened before."