In the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the Democratic Party achieved a decisive victory, reclaiming control of both the House and Senate. Analysts noted that the so-called 'Shy Trump' phenomenon, which had previously skewed polls in favor of Donald Trump, was not as pronounced this time.
As the vote counting neared completion on November 4, Democrats successfully regained their majority in the House and also secured the Senate, taking seats previously held by Republicans in North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and Iowa. Democratic candidates performed better than expected in key battleground states, solidifying their control of both chambers of Congress.
This outcome aligns with pre-election polls that indicated a Democratic advantage. Unlike in the past presidential elections of 2016, 2020, and 2024, where Trump outperformed polling predictions, the 'Shy Trump' effect was notably absent in this election. Instead, voter sentiment was significantly influenced by dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and economic conditions.
According to exit polls conducted by SSRS for major media outlets including NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and AP, 43% of respondents indicated they voted to express opposition to Trump, while only 16% voted in support of him.
Voter dissatisfaction with the economy and government performance also played a crucial role. Thirty-nine percent of respondents identified the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country, while 32% cited the state of democracy. Additionally, 54% of voters stated that government corruption was a decisive factor in their voting decision, and 49% pointed to the cost of living.
The New York Times reported that Trump's strategy of rallying his base during the midterms did not yield the expected results. Throughout the campaign, Trump urged voters to think of him as the candidate on the ballot. However, exit polls revealed that significantly more voters cited opposition to Trump as their reason for voting than those who supported him.
There are indications that support for Democrats has increased among certain voter demographics. An early survey by the University of Chicago's NORC found that compared to the 2024 presidential election, support for Democrats among Hispanic voters, Catholics, and those under 30 rose by double-digit percentages.
In the 2024 presidential election, voters with less than a college degree had supported Trump by a margin of over 12 percentage points, but this time, they favored the Democratic candidate 49% to 47% for the Republican candidate.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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