China is preparing for an energy blockade targeting Taiwan, with the highest risk period projected for 2028 to 2029, according to an analysis by a U.S. think tank.
On November 5, Taiwan's United Daily News reported that Joseph Webster, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, stated in a recent report that China is developing scenarios for a blockade of Taiwan's energy supply chain. He identified 2028 to 2029 as the most dangerous time for Taiwan's energy security.
The report highlighted a quarantine-style blockade that China could implement using its coast guard. This would involve selectively blocking oil and LNG tankers heading to Taiwan while allowing some vessels to pass. By framing this as law enforcement rather than an act of war, China could complicate international military responses. The report also noted that a complete maritime blockade could not be ruled out depending on the situation.
Taiwan's vulnerability stems from its high dependence on energy imports. The share of domestic energy production in Taiwan has decreased from 8.3% in 2016 to an estimated 5.3% in 2025. According to data from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs in March 2026, the country has 150 days' worth of oil reserves, but only 40 days of coal and 11 days of natural gas. A disruption in LNG supply would significantly impact electricity generation. In contrast, China has enhanced its resilience against energy blockades through increased renewable energy production, expanded electric vehicle adoption, boosted oil production, diversified imports via land pipelines, and expanded strategic oil reserves. The report estimated that even if subjected to an oil import blockade, China could maintain civilian and military operations for at least 150 days.
The identification of 2028 as a risky period is linked to the political calendars of Taiwan and the United States. Taiwan is set to hold a presidential election in January 2028, and if the Democratic Progressive Party secures re-election and a legislative majority, it could provoke a stronger backlash from China. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election in November of the same year could lead to domestic political turmoil in Washington, potentially diverting attention and response capabilities regarding the Taiwan Strait. The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping will turn 75 in 2028 is also mentioned as a potential variable.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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