President Lee Jae-myung is facing a special prosecutor investigation involving six cases related to him, as the National Assembly prepares to pass the 'Special Prosecutor Act for Investigating Allegations of Manipulated Investigations and Indictments by the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration.' If the special prosecutor confirms illegal or unjust investigations by the prosecution, it could provide President Lee with an opportunity to overturn the judicial risks that have hindered him for an extended period. Conversely, if the special prosecutor's actions are perceived as a form of 'self-relief' to alleviate the president's legal burdens, it could lead to a backlash from moderate voters and diminish his governance momentum. The special prosecutor's investigation, which could last up to 200 days, is seen as a potential turning point in the political landscape.
According to political sources on November 8, the special prosecutor law is expected to be reviewed and approved at the Cabinet meeting on November 10. Following its enactment, the process for appointing the special prosecutor will involve requests from the National Assembly Speaker and recommendations from the president and various political parties, with appointments likely finalized by the end of this month.
The law stipulates that the special prosecutor's team can investigate for a maximum of 200 days, including preparation time. Analysts suggest that the investigation may extend beyond the year-end budget and personnel discussions into the first half of next year. If conflicts arise between the ruling and opposition parties regarding the appointment of the special prosecutor, the scope of the investigation, and the announcement of results, it could impact the president's efforts in economic and livelihood matters.
A recent survey by Gallup Korea conducted from November 3 to 5 among 1,001 adults nationwide found that President Lee's job approval rating rose by 2 percentage points to 41%, while his disapproval rating stood at 50%. Among moderate voters, the approval rating was 42%. Reasons for disapproval included issues related to real estate, the economy, and security, as well as concerns about morality and evasion of personal trials. Although his approval rating has recovered to the 40% range, judicial issues remain a vulnerable point.
If the special prosecutor's investigation confirms evidence manipulation, witness coercion, or excessive legal interpretations by the prosecution, the situation could change. For President Lee, this would provide an opportunity to shift the narrative from judicial risks posed by the opposition to issues of prosecutorial abuse.
However, the structure allowing the president to directly appoint the special prosecutor for his own case is expected to remain controversial. The special prosecutor will be selected from candidates recommended by the Democratic Party, the People Power Party, and the Justice Party, with the president appointing one of them. Of the 12 cases under investigation, six are related to President Lee, including the Daejang-dong, Wirye, and Baekhyeon-dong development projects, as well as sponsorship funds for Seongnam FC and allegations of witness tampering.
If political neutrality issues arise during the appointment process or if the special prosecutor appears to interfere with ongoing trials, the opposition's claims of 'self-protection' could gain traction. As the People Power Party begins external protests, concerns grow that the special prosecutor issue could overshadow budget reviews and key personnel hearings, potentially limiting the Blue House's ability to govern.
President Lee also requested during a press conference in September that provisions allowing the special prosecutor to decide on the transfer of existing trials or the maintenance of charges be removed, focusing solely on uncovering the truth behind the allegations of manipulated investigations. The law passed by the National Assembly excludes clauses related to the cancellation of charges and requests for the transfer of existing cases, which is seen as an effort to reduce controversy over the special prosecutor being used to resolve the president's personal legal issues.
Experts warn that if the perception solidifies that the investigation is solely for the president's benefit, it could undermine the recent rebound in his approval ratings and hand the opposition a significant advantage in the political arena. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong stated, "The special prosecutor for fabricated charges could act as a double-edged sword for the Lee Jae-myung administration. There is a strong tendency for the public to view it as a personal issue for the president, distant from people's livelihoods. If the investigation confirms actual fabricated charges, the prosecution's accountability will be highlighted, potentially garnering public support for the president. However, if it leads only to discussions about charge cancellations without substantial findings, it could be a fatal blow to the government."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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