SEOUL, May 31 (AJU PRESS) - At the beginning of this year, when Kim Jong-un announced he had abandoned reunification and considered South Koreans to be foreign enemies, South Koreans were not sure how to react.
Some thought he was preparing for nuclear war. Others thought he was angry with President Yoon Suk-yeol. But it is possible he was distracting us from something else. I wonder, is he making the long-awaited change to Chinese-style economic growth and acting tough against South Korea to avoid having to admit that Juche has failed?
It is too early to be sure, but there are signs that this may be the case.
The first sign is ideological. This is hard for us to understand and take seriously because ideology seems more like theology than purposeful politics to us. But we should pay attention because it is what drives North Korea.
In recent years, Kim appears to have been making his distinct stamp on Juche. We may well see the emergence of "Kim Jong-un Thought."
Juche was developed by his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, to emphasize North Korea’s independence from foreign power. While it seemed rooted in the experience of the Japanese occupation, it was actually intended to distance the country from Soviet and Chinese domination.
In the 1990s, his father, Kim Jong-il, shifted the emphasis to "military first." The main themes now under Kim Jong-un have changed to "nation" and "people." In keeping with this, the regime last summer announced a new five-year national development plan to improve the lot of the people.
This is the second sign. Interestingly, it includes a new emphasis on the regions. Specifically, the "20×10 regional development plan" calls for the construction of manufacturing facilities in 20 cities and counties every year for the next ten years.
At the first factory groundbreaking ceremony in February in Songchon County, which is 70 kilometers northeast of Pyongyang, Kim not only set out the vision, but he seemed to
apologize for the low quality of life North Koreans are enduring.
"We are reaching out to powerfully take a step toward grandiose change in the rural industrial revolution," he said, according to North Korean media reports. "I cannot suppress my huge emotion at the thought of giving aid to millions of people in every city and county in the countryside. But on the other hand, honestly, I am ashamed and sorry that we are just starting this now."
We should not get too giddy because this doesn’t mean that liberal democracy and capitalism have broken out. But could it represent a step in the direction akin to Deng Xiaoping’s changes that transformed China?
If so, the significant calculation, which we cannot yet make, would be whether Kim truly is prioritizing economics over reunification. In other words, will national defense now serve to protect the nation instead of to take over South Korea? Will the people now be valued for their contribution to the economy and society, rather than be treated as recruits in a giant, nationwide military base?
This brings us to the apparent rejection of reunification and recharacterization of South
Korea as the "main enemy." What does this mean? For all of their belligerence, North Koreans see South Koreans as brothers and sisters.
From the start, their propaganda portrayed South Koreans as “puppets” of the Americans, as beggars and prostitutes, victims suffering under American oppression. This has always served in part to convince citizens to accept their country as superior. But it also works on them emotionally, making them feel sorry for southerners. It makes them have heroic dreams of liberating them.
Given the subversive influence of K-dramas and K-pop, North Koreans are no longer convinced about their superiority. In making any change of direction, Kim has two options. One is to be honest. But that would be suicide for him.
Here is what his speech would have to sound like: "I admit that South Korea offers its citizens a much better life than we do. In the rivalry to be the better Korea for all Koreans, the South has won and we have lost. Reunification is a tough proposition and, if we do it now, we will be the poor cousins. So, let's not do it. Instead, let’s learn from the South and build up our country. My inspiration is Park Chung-hee. Like he did in the 1960s, I promise you three meals a day. Our first goal is exports of $100 million and per capita income of $100."
The second and more realistic option is to be clever. "Why compare ourselves to South Korea?" he could say. "Why not compare ourselves today to how we were yesterday and plan to be better tomorrow? In fact, let’s cut from South Korea. It’s a distraction."
That is exactly what he has done.
Kim’s declaration in December against reconciliation and reunification with South Korea was more than just words. It was followed in January and February with changes in laws, songs, maps, books. References to unification and to South Korean as brethren were purged. As there was no time to reprint textbooks before April 1, when the school year starts, students spent the holiday gluing bits of paper over the now forbidden words and concepts.
Of course, if he had only done this, many doubts would have surfaced in the minds of North Koreans. The entire national focus has been reunification. Their sacrifice and suffering is for reunification. Also, the South would have called him a traitor and tried to do something.
So, he took action to prevent this reaction. The South Koreans are our enemies, he said. They want to forcibly annex us. They lack good faith. They are foreigners. This position makes it a criminal offense for North Koreans to feel that South Koreans are their brothers and sisters.
The astonishing thing about this picture is that in all the scenarios we imagined for reunification, the one that was missing was that North Korea wouldn’t want it. But perhaps that is now its position. It makes sense because it has something more important to do – to make the lives of its people better and build up their nation, just as South Korea did.
If that is what is happening – and it is too early to be sure – then our choice in South Korea now becomes whether to continue to push for our desired reunification or opt for peaceful separation.
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This article was contributed by Michael Breen, the CEO of Insight Communications and a former foreign correspondent
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