President Lee Jae Myung is heading to Japan Tuesday for a two-day summit, a week after a state visit to China.
His rapid back-and-forth diplomacy reflects intensifying friction between China and Japan, which has escalated since November after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested possible armed intervention “in a Taiwan contingency.”
As the dispute grows, both countries are courting Seoul. During Lee’s China trip, Beijing rolled out a high-profile welcome, and state media repeatedly highlighted South Korea-China cooperation. Japan, too, has appeared eager to avoid provoking Seoul.
Ahead of Lee’s China visit, the Nikkei published a column urging Takaichi not to stir tensions with South Korea over Dokdo.
Both sides have also leaned on history and symbolism. China emphasized the shared anti-Japanese struggle in the colonial era. Japan chose Nara Prefecture — Takaichi’s home region and a historic hub of exchanges between Baekje and Japan — as the venue for a summit, appealing to sentiment as well as strategy.
The key for South Korea, however, is strict pragmatism. China and Japan can shift quickly, and both hold leverage that could hit South Korean industry. China has already used rare earths — a card that helped it withstand U.S. tariff pressure — and Japan, a leader in materials and components, has its own tools, including photoresist, a key semiconductor material. South Korea has previously faced difficulties when such pressure was applied.
China’s export controls on dual-use items are aimed at Japan, but South Korea could be caught in the fallout because of tightly linked supply chains: Chinese raw materials → Japanese processed materials → South Korean finished products.
During Lee’s visit, China announced dual-use export controls targeting Japan and signaled possible sanctions even on third countries involved.
Japan also poses risks. The Takaichi government’s rightward shift and security buildup could raise tensions in Northeast Asia and increase the likelihood that Tokyo will press South Korea for “security participation.” If Seoul loses its footing amid the courtship, it risks becoming not a mediator in China-Japan tensions but a proxy battleground bearing the costs of their rivalry — on top of already being squeezed by U.S.-China competition.
The international order under the second Trump administration is driven less by ideology than by national interest and practical gain. On Tuesday as Lee heads to Japan, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China for the first time in eight years.
The two countries, which clashed in recent years over issues including human rights and Huawei, are now exploring cooperation in response to the Trump administration’s “America First” approach.
South Korea’s interests in managing China and Japan are clear. With China, it should restore an economic partnership while continuing “de-risking” to reduce supply-chain dependence. With Japan, it should strengthen security and supply-chain coordination while holding firm principles on historical and territorial issues. That requires focusing on practical cooperation in future industries such as semiconductors, AI and energy — taking neighbors’ outstretched hands while coolly watching where their hidden blades may point.
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