SEOUL, March 03 (AJP) - South Korean memory producers do not expect the flare-up in the Middle East to disrupt their unprecedented upcycle, with DRAM prices projected to nearly double in the first quarter from the prior three-month period that already delivered record chip profits.
Market tracker TrendForce recently forecast a 90–95 percent quarter-over-quarter surge in conventional DRAM contract prices for the first quarter, driven by sustained artificial intelligence (AI) demand.
As escalating geopolitical tensions unsettle global logistics and energy markets, questions have emerged over whether the conflict could interfere with this upward pricing trajectory.
For South Korea’s major semiconductor manufacturers, however, the immediate logistical fallout appears limited. Rather than citing macro shocks as a catalyst for further price adjustments, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain focused on the underlying supply-demand imbalance.
While rising oil prices and maritime bottlenecks have weighed on other industries, memory chips remain structurally insulated. Lightweight and high in value, they are predominantly transported via air freight, leaving ocean shipping disruptions a secondary concern.
An SK hynix official said transportation expenses account for only a small portion of overall manufacturing costs.
“The memory industry is not directly linked to the Middle East issue,” the official said. “The market is already facing a severe supply shortage relative to demand, and prices have risen sharply. It is unlikely this geopolitical factor will serve as an additional driver.”
Samsung Electronics is not implementing specific countermeasures related to cost burdens but remains cautious.
“Semiconductors are mostly shipped by air, though finished consumer electronics move by sea, so the impact is not entirely absent,” an official familiar with the matter said. The company’s immediate priority has been employee safety, strongly recommending remote work for staff stationed in the Middle East.
On potential price adjustments, the official added: “If cost burdens materialize, they could influence pricing, but it is difficult to quantify at this stage. We need to assess how the situation evolves.”
Investors nevertheless turned jittery. Shares of Samsung Electronics tumbled 11.41 percent to 191,800 won ($130.89) and SK hynix 12.82 percent to end Tuesday at 926,000 won, pushing the main Kospi down 7.24 percent in one of its steepest single-day falls.
Logistics experts caution warn secondary effects — particularly energy costs- could prove more consequential than direct shipping disruptions.
Kang Kyung-woo, emeritus professor of traffic and logistics engineering at Hanyang University, noted that semiconductor firms had already built substantial inventories in anticipation of supply chain volatility.
“In the short term, logistics impact will not be significant,” Kang said.
However, he underscored energy and geopolitical realignments as longer-term variables.
“Semiconductor production is energy-intensive. While direct shipping effects are minimal, indirect impacts through energy supply disruptions are likely,” he said. Increased demand for defense technologies could also tighten supply chains further, adding sustained pressure to an already constrained market.
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