Seoul is already adapting.
South Korea has secured 74.62 million barrels of crude for May, roughly 87 percent of last year's monthly average. Naphtha — largely derived from Middle Eastern crude — is stocked at 85 to 90 percent of pre-war levels, according to presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik.
"We are increasing imports from the United States, Brazil and other non-Gulf suppliers to stabilize domestic supply," Kang said.
In a development that could reshape supply dynamics, the United Arab Emirates announced it will withdraw from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective Friday, removing the cartel's fourth-largest producer at a time when the U.S.-Iran standoff has thrust Gulf supply routes into the center of global energy security concerns.
For Seoul, the timing is critical.
With OPEC quotas no longer binding from May, the UAE's production capacity of 4.8 million barrels per day — well above its previous 3.2 million barrel quota — creates room for supply expansion, particularly for buyers seeking alternatives to Hormuz-dependent shipments.
That diversification is underpinned by infrastructure. The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and terminates on the Gulf of Oman, has emerged as one of only two viable alternatives, alongside Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.
Domestically, Korea has moved quickly to stabilize operations.
Utilization rates at naphtha crackers, which slumped in late March, are recovering. Yeochun NCC has raised its rate to 65 percent from 55 percent, Korea Petrochemical Industries to 72 percent from 62 percent, and Lotte Chemical to 83 percent from 73 percent at its Daesan complex.
"Support measures for naphtha import cost differentials are taking effect, and contracted volumes are rising. If the current trend continues, supply will largely return to pre-war levels in May, easing concerns over petrochemical shortages," Trade Minister Kim Jung-kwan said at a Cabinet meeting.
Brent crude surged past $113 per barrel as daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz plunged to around eight vessels, down from a pre-war average of 135 — underscoring how fragile supply remains despite diversification efforts.
Last year, about 63 percent of Korea's crude imports and 54 percent of its naphtha shipments passed through Hormuz. The first non-Hormuz Saudi cargo, loaded from Yanbu on the Red Sea, only arrived in Korea on April 17.
The costs of these workarounds are already filtering through the economy.
Gasoline prices have climbed above 2,000 won per liter, prompting a 6.1 trillion won relief package that began disbursing on April 27 to around 32.56 million citizens.
Industrial users are also under pressure. Prices for delivery films, tapes and cushioning materials have surged 20 to 30 percent, with some products nearly doubling, accelerating a shift toward alternatives such as pulp-mold packaging.
Seoul's policy response has broadened accordingly.
The Financial Services Commission has expanded emergency financing support to 26.8 trillion won, targeting petrochemicals, refining and five other strategic sectors.
At the same time, the government is using the crisis to accelerate structural change. The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment has unveiled a roadmap to cut virgin naphtha-based material use by 30 percent by 2030.
The UAE's departure from OPEC+, combined with a potential slowdown in U.S. shale output, could narrow the long-standing cost disadvantage faced by Asian refiners, positioning Korean producers as swing suppliers in global markets.
"The UAE's exit strengthens Asian producers' bargaining power and supports longer-term price moderation, but it is not an immediate catalyst for lower prices," said Yoon Jae-sung, an analyst at Hana Securities. "If Hormuz normalizes, it becomes a tailwind — but for now, it remains neutral."
That uncertainty deepens if the conflict persists.
Competition for heavy crude outside the Middle East is intensifying, while the risk of retaliatory production cuts by Saudi Arabia in response to the UAE's exit adds another layer of volatility.
"Unless the conflict ends on terms that restore confidence among shipowners and insurers, it will be extremely difficult for oil prices to return to pre-war levels, even over the longer term," said Chung Tae-hun of the Korea Energy Economics Institute.
"We are already seeing intensified competition from China and Japan for alternative crude. And if Saudi Arabia responds with production cuts, downward pressure on prices may remain limited, even in the near term."
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