The bifurcation, sharpened by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has produced what economists describe as a "K-shaped" recovery, in which the gains from the artificial intelligence boom and the pain of fuel scarcity move in opposite directions across the region.
Taiwan’s first-quarter GDP expanded 13.69 percent, the fastest pace in 39 years, as its stock market surpassed Canada’s to become the world’s sixth largest. South Korea’s KOSPI has also overtaken the stock markets of London and Toronto, propelled by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, whose first-quarter profits reached fresh records.
Samsung’s market capitalization has climbed above $1 trillion, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company now accounts for more than 40 percent of the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
A report by the United Nations Trade and Development projects the global AI market will expand to $4.8 trillion by 2033, roughly 25 times its 2023 size.
A contrasting picture emerges in the south and west.
In the Philippines, where more than 36 percent of the consumer price basket is linked to oil, fuel prices have surged past 100 pesos ($5.81) per liter. The central bank is weighing whether to raise interest rates to contain inflation or hold them steady to protect growth. Manila has also introduced a four-day workweek to curb fuel demand.
Thailand has reported nationwide fuel shortages, while Pakistan has urged cricket fans to watch matches from home to conserve gasoline.
At the heart of the divide is intensifying competition for medium and heavy crude oil, the grades that generate the highest refining margins and underpin Middle Eastern exports. Although the United States is the world’s largest oil producer, its output is heavily weighted toward light, sweet shale crude, leaving Asian refiners competing fiercely for sour crude from non-Hormuz suppliers.
"Unless the war ends on reasonable and viable terms good enough to convince shipowners and insurance companies, it may be extremely difficult for oil prices to return to post-war levels even in the long run," said Chung Tae-hun, an associate research fellow at the Korea Energy Economics Institute.
"We still face competition for heavy crude oil outside the Middle East if the war becomes prolonged, with China and Japan also bidding for supplies," he said.
Brent crude hovered around $106 a barrel on Wednesday, while daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly 18 vessels from a prewar average of 135.
The World Bank reported that by the end of March, Brent prices had risen about 65 percent, marking the largest monthly oil-price increase on record.
The wealth generated by the AI boom has also failed to spread evenly within the region’s winning economies.
In South Korea, more than 30,000 unionized workers at Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor division have scheduled a strike from May 21 to June 7 after wage negotiations collapsed Tuesday. The union is demanding a 15 percent operating-profit bonus and a 7 percent increase in base pay.
JPMorgan Chase estimates the 18-day stoppage could reduce Samsung’s quarterly profits by as much as 12 percent.
Officials and analysts warn that the widening divergence could have consequences far beyond Asia.
Deepening inequality threatens to weaken consumer spending, complicate monetary policy and disrupt global trade flows. Analysts also warn that the fuel shortage could soon become critical.
"We are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially face critical shortages as we get into the June-July timeframe," said Andy O’Brien, chief financial officer of ConocoPhillips, during the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
Valero Energy also warned of worsening supply pressures. Chief executive Lane Riggs said that for every day the strait remains closed, "it takes a minimum of three days to rebuild stocks," meaning it could take six to 12 months to fully replenish inventories.
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