Middle Eastern crude shipments between March and May are projected to fall 48 percent from a year earlier, according to shipping data compiled by Kpler and reported by Japan's Nikkei newspaper on Friday.
The disruption follows the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies normally pass.
Among major exporters, crude shipments from Kuwait and Iraq are expected to decline by more than 90 percent during the three-month period, while exports from the United Arab Emirates are projected to fall 33 percent and those from Saudi Arabia 29 percent.
Iran, which controls the northern side of the strait, initially maintained export volumes in March and April at levels similar to a year earlier. However, shipments are expected to plunge 87 percent in May after Washington intensified maritime interdiction efforts against Iranian oil exports.
The collapse in Gulf supplies has hit Northeast Asia particularly hard because of its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy.
Japan's crude imports are projected to fall 47 percent between March and May from a year earlier, the steepest decline among the world's 10 largest crude-importing nations. South Korea is expected to post the second-largest drop, with imports falling 31 percent.
Before the outbreak of the conflict, Japan sourced about 90 percent of its crude imports from the Middle East, while South Korea relied on the region for roughly 70 percent of its oil needs.
China has been relatively insulated. With Middle Eastern crude accounting for about 40 percent of its imports, China's crude purchases are expected to decline by a comparatively modest 18 percent during the same period.
Japanese refiners have moved aggressively to replace lost Gulf supplies with U.S. crude. American oil accounted for just 2 percent of Japan's imports in February but had risen to more than 20 percent by early May.
South Korea has also accelerated efforts to diversify supply sources.
According to recent data released by the Korea International Trade Association, South Korea imported 4.49 million tons of crude oil from the Middle East in April, down 37.3 percent from a year earlier. Total crude imports fell 22.8 percent to 8.46 million tons.
As a result, the Middle East's share of South Korea's crude imports dropped to 53.1 percent in April from 65.2 percent a year earlier.
Imports from Saudi Arabia, traditionally South Korea's largest supplier, fell 37.6 percent to 2.14 million tons. In contrast, crude imports from the United States rose 13.4 percent to 2.14 million tons, putting U.S. supplies on par with Saudi volumes for the first time in recent years.
Since the war, Seoul has dispatched special envoys to the Middle East and Central Asia in April to secure alternative supply routes and reduce dependence on Hormuz-linked shipments.
Crude imports from Australia surged 89 percent from a year earlier in April to 440,000 tons, while imports from Canada more than doubled to 240,000 tons. Shipments from Africa rose sharply to 400,000 tons from just 60,000 tons a year earlier.
The supply shock has extended beyond crude oil. Global naphtha exports are expected to decline 23 percent between March and May as Middle Eastern shipments contract sharply. Exports from the UAE are projected to plunge 87 percent, while Saudi shipments are expected to fall 27 percent.
The supply disruptions come as uncertainty continues to surround the future of the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday emerged from a two-hour Situation Room meeting without approving a proposed framework that could extend the current ceasefire and eventually reopen the strategic waterway. Trump had earlier suggested he was prepared to make a "final determination" on a possible agreement with Iran, but administration officials said no decision was reached.
The proposed arrangement would reportedly include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities and a phased easing of U.S. maritime pressure on Iranian shipping. Tehran, however, has publicly rejected several of Washington's conditions and insists current negotiations are focused on maintaining the ceasefire rather than its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, small numbers of oil tankers and LNG carriers have continued transiting the strait using a combination of covert navigation and U.S. military assistance. Some vessels have sailed "dark," switching off automatic identification systems and navigation lights to reduce the risk of Iranian interception, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Vessels moving through the area remain in close communication with American naval forces, which use drones, radar and surveillance assets to guide ships through relatively safe corridors cleared earlier by U.S. mine-countermeasure operations.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued asserting control over the waterway and has reportedly attempted to lay sea mines and launch drone attacks against commercial shipping. U.S. Central Command says American forces have responded by destroying mine-laying vessels and striking missile and drone sites while maintaining that the broader ceasefire remains intact.
A South Korean-operated commercial vessel was among ships damaged during Iranian missile and drone attacks near the Gulf shipping lanes.
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