The new threat leaves major Asian importers, including South Korea, facing renewed uncertainty after months of longer shipping routes and higher freight costs triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict.
South Korea is particularly exposed. Saudi Arabia supplied more than 35 percent of the country's crude imports last year, according to the Korea Petroleum Association.
"Saudi Arabia has so far been able to maintain supplies by shipping crude through the Red Sea rather than through the Strait of Hormuz," a Korea Petroleum Association official said. "But if the Bab el-Mandeb is disrupted as well, the available alternatives become much more limited."
While Saudi cargoes could theoretically move north through the Suez Canal, the route is ill-suited for the very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that dominate shipments to Asia.
The government, however, sought to calm immediate supply concerns.
South Korea has enough crude oil supplies to last through September and expects no immediate disruption even if shipping through the Red Sea is halted, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said Tuesday, as lingering tensions in the Middle East put another major energy shipping route at risk.
Refiners have already secured crude for July and August equivalent to more than 110 percent of last year's average import volume, while bookings for September have surpassed 90 percent of imports recorded during the same period a year earlier, according to the ministry.
"Even if the Red Sea is blocked, we do not expect any particular difficulty."
South Korea appears insulated through September, but the outlook beyond that is less certain. A tanker typically takes about 20 to 23 days to sail from the Gulf to East Asia.
Rerouting around Africa's Cape of Good Hope would add another two to three weeks, raising the risk of supply disruptions during the fourth quarter should the conflict persist.
Most Middle Eastern crude bound for South Korea is transported aboard VLCCs capable of carrying more than 2 million barrels. When fully loaded, many draw too much water to pass safely through the Suez Canal, requiring cargoes to be transferred to smaller vessels or rerouted through alternative facilities.
"Smaller tankers could still use the route, but there are obvious limits to how much they can carry," the Korea Petroleum Association official said. "It's like replacing a large cup with a tiny syrup cup. It may work in an emergency, but moving large volumes that way would be extremely difficult."
The Bab el-Mandeb sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, linking it to the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For tankers leaving Yanbu, it has become the only practical route to Asian customers after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became severely constrained.
Before the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in late February, Saudi Arabia exported about 7.2 million barrels of crude a day, with nearly 90 percent passing through Hormuz, according to shipping data provider Kpler.
The disruption forced Saudi Aramco to shift exports to its East-West Pipeline, which transports crude from eastern oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Since then, more than 70 percent of Saudi Arabia's normal crude exports have been redirected through Yanbu. Shipments from the port have averaged roughly 4 million barrels a day in recent weeks, more than four times the level recorded during the same period last year.
While cargoes bound for Europe continue north through the Suez Canal, exports to Asia must pass south through Bab el-Mandeb, transforming the narrow waterway into Saudi Arabia's critical export gateway to its largest customers.
The shift is evident in shipping flows. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an average 5.4 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products transited the Bab el-Mandeb in the first quarter.
By June, total petroleum flows through the strait had climbed to 7.4 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 7 percent of global oil production, according to Kpler, up from 4.2 million barrels a day a year earlier.
Should the strait become impassable, tankers would have little choice but to sail around Africa, adding thousands of nautical miles and roughly two to three weeks to voyages to Asia.
"The impact is going to be massive in the first month," said Matt Smith, commodity research director at Kpler. "The biggest impact is going to be on Saudi flows."
Alternative routes offer only limited relief. Besides draft restrictions in the Suez Canal, Egypt's SUMED Pipeline lacks sufficient capacity to absorb the diverted volumes.
Brent crude settled $1.12, or 1.3 percent, higher at $89.22 a barrel Monday after touching an intraday high of $91.42, with hopes of renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran helping temper gains.
Analysts warned crude prices could climb to between $115 and $120 a barrel if Houthi attacks were to halt traffic through Bab el-Mandeb for a prolonged period.
The latest threat marks another escalation after the collapse of the June ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. Iran has continued to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. assurances that neutral vessels bound for non-Iranian destinations would not be impeded.
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