The sands of the Middle East are stirring once again. Reports of Saudi Arabia conducting airstrikes on Iranian territory signal more than just military news; they represent a historical shift in the regional order.
Until now, Saudi Arabia and Iran have faced each other with sharpened swords, carefully avoiding direct confrontation. Instead, they have engaged in proxy wars, information battles, oil price wars, and sectarian conflicts to vie for influence. However, the situation is changing. The UAE's retaliatory strikes, controversies surrounding the infiltration of Kuwait's Revolutionary Guards, and the movements of pro-Iran militias across Iraq and Syria indicate that the entire Middle East is transforming into a massive powder keg.
This development is particularly significant as it suggests a gradual fracture in the U.S.-led security order in the region. Saudi Arabia is no longer merely a oil-rich nation under the American umbrella; it is evolving into a strategic nation pursuing AI, advanced industries, NEOM City, global logistics, tourism, and financial hubs. For Saudi Arabia, the threats posed by the Revolutionary Guards' drones and missiles are perceived as existential challenges to its regime and future industries.
More importantly, immediately following the airstrikes, Saudi Arabia reopened diplomatic channels and sought to ease tensions. This indicates that both sides understand the reality that “if it escalates, everyone will perish.”
Iran holds the key to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy. It possesses a vast network of proxy forces, including the Revolutionary Guards, drones, missiles, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states wield financial power that drives the oil and LNG markets, AI investments, maritime logistics, and the global energy sector.
If the conflict spirals out of control, the flames will not be contained to the Middle East. The repercussions could lead to soaring international oil prices, LNG shocks, skyrocketing maritime insurance rates, supply chain disruptions, energy crises for AI data centers, and a global stock market crash, affecting semiconductor factories in Seoul, precision equipment firms in Tokyo, manufacturing in India, and the chemical industry in Europe.
At this juncture, I have long proposed a key concept: the Middle East must move beyond mere ceasefires or diplomatic agreements to establish a more fundamental order of civilizational coexistence. I call this the 'Noah Accord.'
Why Noah? According to the biblical Book of Genesis, after the Great Flood, humanity spread through Noah's three sons: Shem, Ham, and Japheth. Traditionally, it has been interpreted that the descendants of Shem form the core lineage of Middle Eastern civilization. Today, the term 'Semitic' derives from Shem.
Both the Jewish and Arab peoples are understood to be part of the Semitic lineage. Abraham, too, is a descendant of Shem. In other words, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the broader Arab world are not entirely different entities when viewed through the lens of deep civilizational roots; they are brother civilizations emerging from the same ancestral lineage.
Here, the issue of Iran is crucial. Many view Iran merely as a separate civilization called “Persia,” but in reality, Iran is deeply connected to the Semitic civilizations throughout history. The predominant religion in Iran, Islam, stands on the monotheistic tradition of Abraham, and the Quran honors Noah as a great prophet.
When examining the broader religious and civilizational structure of the Middle East, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam have all developed within the vast Semitic civilization, influencing each other through their connections to Noah and Abraham. Thus, Iran is not an entirely external civilization but rather another significant pillar within the same monotheistic civilization of the Middle East.
Of course, Iran has historically absorbed influences from the traditions of the Persian Empire and the civilizations of India and Central Asia, forming its unique identity. However, within its deeply rooted spiritual world, a common memory of Middle Eastern civilization flowing from Noah and Abraham persists.
This point is critical. The Middle East is currently trapped in a complex conflict structure: Shia vs. Sunni, Arab vs. Persian, Jew vs. Muslim, and the U.S. vs. Iran. However, tracing the roots of these conflicts reveals that they are not entirely different ethnicities but rather brother civilizations that have diverged from the same ancestors and shared civilizational memories.
The significance of Noah's story lies not merely in bloodlines. Noah was the figure who built the ark amid the flood. That ark was not meant for a specific nation; it symbolized the minimum order of coexistence necessary for survival.
Humanity now stands before another great flood. The AI revolution, nuclear crises, supply chain conflicts, energy wars, population decline, climate change, and civilizational clashes are all converging. The Middle East, in particular, is the world's powder keg where all these conflicts are concentrated. In this era, what is needed is not merely military victory but a new order of coexistence.
The core of the Noah Accord lies here: First, a joint guarantee of safety for international maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Second, a prohibition on attacks against energy facilities and civilian infrastructure. Third, the establishment of a dialogue framework that transcends Shia and Sunni, Jew and Arab. Fourth, the establishment of principles for using AI and advanced technology for human survival and development rather than warfare. Fifth, a minimum agreement recognizing Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern nations as entities for coexistence rather than annihilation.
Israel, along with Sunni Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, has already begun to seek paths of reconciliation and cooperation through the Abraham Accords. While complete peace is still distant, at least a shared recognition of the need to “live together” is forming.
The remaining challenge is Iran. As the leader of Shia Islam, Iran must also recognize that it is not an entirely isolated entity but ultimately a brother civilization within the same Middle Eastern civilization, descended from Noah. Likewise, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE must view Iran not merely as a target for elimination but as a long-term partner for coexistence. This is because, in the current structure, no one can emerge as a complete victor.
Even with overwhelming military power, the U.S. cannot fully stabilize the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can mobilize the Revolutionary Guards and proxy forces, but sustaining a long-term conflict against the world is challenging. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states possess significant financial resources, but if their energy export routes are disrupted, their future visions are threatened.
Ultimately, the future of the Middle East lies not in 'total victory' but in 'controlled coexistence.' The world is not merely seeking breaking news; it is asking, “How should we live moving forward?” The flames of conflict in the Middle East are not just about war in the desert; they represent questions about the direction of human civilization in the age of AI. Therefore, the Middle East must move beyond simple ceasefire agreements toward a greater civilizational imagination.
The Noah Accord is, in essence, a new contract for coexistence that begins with the recognition that Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Sunni world, along with Iran as the leader of Shia Islam, are not different enemies but rather the same descendants of Noah and brother civilizations within the same civilizational sphere. It may well be a new ark of civilization that humanity must create to survive in the age of AI.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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