The path looks steep. Injuries have sidelined key players, and rivals in Pool C appear stronger than in past tournaments.
South Korea will play four Pool C games at the Tokyo Dome, opening March 5 against the Czech Republic, then facing Japan on March 7, Taiwan on March 8 and Australia on March 9. To reach the quarterfinals in Miami, South Korea must finish in the top two of the group.
South Korea’s biggest concern is the loss of core players. Expected starters Moon Dong-ju (Hanwha Eagles) and Won Tae-in (Samsung Lions) were dropped from the roster, and Korean American big leaguer Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals), slated to close, could not join because of a calf injury. In the field, Kim Ha-seong (Atlanta Braves) and Song Seong-mun (San Diego Padres) are also out.
Analysts have assessed the team at about 80% to 85% of full strength. Song Jae-woo, a TVING commentator, said in a Feb. 27 phone interview that most of the injured players were key contributors.
“The three pitchers being out feels especially big,” Song said. “The WBC is a tournament where you need to go in at full strength to have a chance. Not being able to do that makes it a tough road.”
Song said South Korea’s best international runs have typically featured a clear No. 1 starter.
“In this tournament, Kwak has to fill that role,” Song said. “It’s a really important assignment, and he has to deliver.”
Veteran left-hander Ryu Hyun-jin (Hanwha) is also seen as a stabilizing presence. Min said Ryu would be counted on in big moments and could help teammates prepare off the field as well.
Min described Jones and Whitcomb as right-handed power bats who could help the lineup, particularly against left-handed pitching. Song said Whitcomb’s power could matter when the team needs a big swing.
Dunning is expected to work as a flexible option, starting or relieving. Song called him a “joker card,” citing his experience and a sinker that could be useful when South Korea needs ground balls or a double play.
Analysts say South Korea’s quarterfinal hopes may hinge on Taiwan, assuming it takes care of the Czech Republic and Australia. South Korea is 4-0 against Taiwan in WBC play, but the most recent meeting ended in a painful loss to Taiwan in the group stage of the 2024 WBSC Premier12.
Song said Taiwan is “the strongest it has ever been,” noting that it now has five or six pitchers who throw in the mid-to-upper 150 kph range, giving it more flexibility. Min said the old view of Taiwan as a team prone to defensive mistakes no longer applies, calling it roughly equal to South Korea in ability.
The schedule is another concern. South Korea plays Japan at 7 p.m. on March 7, then returns less than a day later to face Taiwan at noon on March 8.
To limit bullpen wear, analysts said South Korea needs early runs against the Czech Republic to reduce the use of late-inning relievers, then adjust for Japan and Taiwan.
“South Korea has to crush the Czech Republic early and build momentum,” Song said. “Save pitchers and face Japan and Taiwan with confidence.”
South Korea and Japan have played close games in WBC history, with South Korea holding a 4-5 record. But analysts said the gap in overall talent looks wider heading into this tournament.
“Objectively, looking at name value, the lineup and how the pitching staff is built, South Korea is behind,” Min said.
Song said South Korea would need something beyond its baseline performance in a short tournament.
“Because we’re clearly weaker, we have to show something more than our ability,” he said. “In the tight flow of a short series, a ‘problem-solver’ has to emerge to flip the mood in an instant.”
Even so, both analysts said rivalry games can turn on factors outside pure talent, including mental toughness.
“In Korea-Japan games, variables beyond objective strength often affect the result,” Min said. “When we face them head-on as one team, there’s no rule that says we can’t beat Japan. Our players are mentally prepared.”
Song said the best-case scenario would be to stay even through a clutch performance, then steal the win late.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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