The recent U.S.-China summit in Beijing in May 2026 held significance beyond merely managing bilateral relations. Underlying the discussions were complex calculations aimed at stabilizing the Middle East order, global energy flows, and international financial markets.
Particularly noteworthy was the focus on the Iran nuclear issue and the stability of the Hormuz Strait. Although the official statements were crafted in relatively restrained diplomatic language, they reflected a consensus between the U.S. and China on the need to manage the explosive crises in the Middle East.
Currently, the global economy is precariously positioned atop three major powder kegs: the protracted war in Ukraine, the U.S.-China technological rivalry over artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and the Iran nuclear issue coupled with risks in the Hormuz Strait.
The Hormuz Strait is not just a maritime route; it is a critical energy artery through which approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade passes. Oil and liquefied natural gas from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, and Iran traverse this narrow strait en route to Asia and Europe. Should this route be blocked or military conflicts arise, international oil prices, shipping rates, and insurance costs could skyrocket.
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a prolonged tug-of-war over nuclear development. The U.S. has maintained a firm stance against allowing Iran to approach the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons, while Iran has argued that its nuclear development is a sovereign right for peaceful purposes.
The crux of the issue lies in uranium enrichment levels and the scope of nuclear facility operations. The West suspects that Iran has approached the final stages of nuclear weapon production, while Iran contends that U.S. unilateral sanctions and pressure have exacerbated tensions.
The situation is further complicated by Israel's concerns. Israel views Iran's nuclear armament as a direct threat to its national survival, leading to ongoing discussions within Israel about the possibility of preemptive strikes if necessary. In fact, military tensions in the Middle East have largely revolved around Iran's nuclear facilities and Israel's security issues.
However, the atmosphere following the Beijing summit suggests a shift in diplomatic dynamics. Both the U.S. and China recognize the current reality that neither can afford a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. is already burdened by significant financial obligations, the political calendar leading up to elections, and support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, China is grappling with economic slowdown, declining exports, and real estate risks, making stable energy supplies crucial.
Consequently, analysts suggest that both countries are beginning to prioritize a management system to prevent dangerous escalations over the complete resolution of the Iran nuclear issue. This implies a shift toward a realistic compromise that favors a freeze on nuclear weapons development, enhanced international monitoring, and guaranteed safe passage through the Hormuz Strait.
China's role is becoming increasingly significant. Over the past decade, relations between China and Iran have strengthened rapidly. China is now one of Iran's largest oil importers and plays a vital role in the Iranian economy.
The two countries have signed long-term economic cooperation agreements, expanding collaboration across energy, infrastructure, railways, ports, and telecommunications. Iran is a key hub in China's Belt and Road Initiative, connecting Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Geopolitically, Iran has historically been a strategic point linking the Silk Road and the Hormuz Strait since the days of the Persian Empire.
From China's perspective, Iran is not merely an oil-producing nation; it serves as a strategic buffer against the U.S.-led maritime order and is crucial for maintaining energy security. Despite international sanctions, China has continued to import Iranian oil through various means, with Chinese refineries consistently securing discounted Iranian crude, which has played a significant role in stabilizing China's industrial economy.
Conversely, Iran also finds itself in dire need of China. With limited access to international financial networks due to U.S. and Western sanctions, China has effectively become Iran's largest trading partner. Investments from Chinese companies and their participation in infrastructure projects have become essential pillars of the Iranian economy.
However, China cannot unconditionally support Iran. The Chinese economy remains deeply intertwined with the U.S. and European markets, and prolonged instability in the Middle East could lead to soaring energy prices and disruptions in maritime logistics, adversely affecting China's own economy.
This is where the significance of the recent U.S.-China summit emerges. The U.S. seeks China's cooperation in managing Iran to a certain extent, while China hopes the U.S. will avoid excessively escalating tensions in the Middle East. In other words, both countries, while competing, find common ground in managing risks in the region.
As for when the joint statement on the stability of navigation through the Hormuz Strait and the freeze on Iran's nuclear program will take effect, diplomats are paying attention to the possibility of a phased approach.
In the short term, there is a strong likelihood of reaching an informal agreement on military restraint and ensuring safe passage through the strait. Following that, discussions may include enhanced monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, some limitations on uranium enrichment, and conditional easing of sanctions.
Of course, many variables remain. The differing positions of hardliners within Israel and Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the U.S. election landscape, and proxy conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt negotiations at any moment. Particularly, even a minor military clash could lead to a sharp spike in international oil prices. Nevertheless, the world is currently opting for 'risk management' over 'complete victory.'
This reflects a harsh realism. The U.S., China, Iran, and even Israel are all acutely aware of the costs of full-scale war. If a large-scale conflict erupts in the Middle East, the global economy would inevitably plunge back into inflation and supply chain shocks.
For South Korea, this issue is even more urgent. The country has a high dependency on energy imports. If supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East are disrupted, the manufacturing, logistics, and electricity costs would all face simultaneous pressure. In particular, if the Hormuz Strait becomes unstable, the South Korean economy would be hard-hit.
Conversely, if stability in the strait and a reduction in tensions in the Middle East continue, it could provide relief for the South Korean economy. Stabilizing international oil prices would likely lead to improvements in inflation, exchange rates, and trade balances. Ultimately, the U.S.-China summit in Beijing is not merely a diplomatic event between the two nations.
It represents a shared understanding that the energy order, which serves as the last safety net for the global economy amidst the competition for supremacy in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, must not be disrupted. The oil tankers traversing the deserts of the Middle East and the diplomatic discussions in Beijing may seem like entirely different worlds on the surface. However, they are fundamentally interconnected.
In an era of global hegemony, it is ultimately energy that drives civilization, and that energy still flows through the Hormuz Strait.
Particularly noteworthy was the focus on the Iran nuclear issue and the stability of the Hormuz Strait. Although the official statements were crafted in relatively restrained diplomatic language, they reflected a consensus between the U.S. and China on the need to manage the explosive crises in the Middle East.
Currently, the global economy is precariously positioned atop three major powder kegs: the protracted war in Ukraine, the U.S.-China technological rivalry over artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and the Iran nuclear issue coupled with risks in the Hormuz Strait.
The Hormuz Strait is not just a maritime route; it is a critical energy artery through which approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil trade passes. Oil and liquefied natural gas from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, and Iran traverse this narrow strait en route to Asia and Europe. Should this route be blocked or military conflicts arise, international oil prices, shipping rates, and insurance costs could skyrocket.
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a prolonged tug-of-war over nuclear development. The U.S. has maintained a firm stance against allowing Iran to approach the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons, while Iran has argued that its nuclear development is a sovereign right for peaceful purposes.
The crux of the issue lies in uranium enrichment levels and the scope of nuclear facility operations. The West suspects that Iran has approached the final stages of nuclear weapon production, while Iran contends that U.S. unilateral sanctions and pressure have exacerbated tensions.
The situation is further complicated by Israel's concerns. Israel views Iran's nuclear armament as a direct threat to its national survival, leading to ongoing discussions within Israel about the possibility of preemptive strikes if necessary. In fact, military tensions in the Middle East have largely revolved around Iran's nuclear facilities and Israel's security issues.
However, the atmosphere following the Beijing summit suggests a shift in diplomatic dynamics. Both the U.S. and China recognize the current reality that neither can afford a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. is already burdened by significant financial obligations, the political calendar leading up to elections, and support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, China is grappling with economic slowdown, declining exports, and real estate risks, making stable energy supplies crucial.
Consequently, analysts suggest that both countries are beginning to prioritize a management system to prevent dangerous escalations over the complete resolution of the Iran nuclear issue. This implies a shift toward a realistic compromise that favors a freeze on nuclear weapons development, enhanced international monitoring, and guaranteed safe passage through the Hormuz Strait.
China's role is becoming increasingly significant. Over the past decade, relations between China and Iran have strengthened rapidly. China is now one of Iran's largest oil importers and plays a vital role in the Iranian economy.
The two countries have signed long-term economic cooperation agreements, expanding collaboration across energy, infrastructure, railways, ports, and telecommunications. Iran is a key hub in China's Belt and Road Initiative, connecting Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Geopolitically, Iran has historically been a strategic point linking the Silk Road and the Hormuz Strait since the days of the Persian Empire.
From China's perspective, Iran is not merely an oil-producing nation; it serves as a strategic buffer against the U.S.-led maritime order and is crucial for maintaining energy security. Despite international sanctions, China has continued to import Iranian oil through various means, with Chinese refineries consistently securing discounted Iranian crude, which has played a significant role in stabilizing China's industrial economy.
Conversely, Iran also finds itself in dire need of China. With limited access to international financial networks due to U.S. and Western sanctions, China has effectively become Iran's largest trading partner. Investments from Chinese companies and their participation in infrastructure projects have become essential pillars of the Iranian economy.
However, China cannot unconditionally support Iran. The Chinese economy remains deeply intertwined with the U.S. and European markets, and prolonged instability in the Middle East could lead to soaring energy prices and disruptions in maritime logistics, adversely affecting China's own economy.
This is where the significance of the recent U.S.-China summit emerges. The U.S. seeks China's cooperation in managing Iran to a certain extent, while China hopes the U.S. will avoid excessively escalating tensions in the Middle East. In other words, both countries, while competing, find common ground in managing risks in the region.
As for when the joint statement on the stability of navigation through the Hormuz Strait and the freeze on Iran's nuclear program will take effect, diplomats are paying attention to the possibility of a phased approach.
In the short term, there is a strong likelihood of reaching an informal agreement on military restraint and ensuring safe passage through the strait. Following that, discussions may include enhanced monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, some limitations on uranium enrichment, and conditional easing of sanctions.
Of course, many variables remain. The differing positions of hardliners within Israel and Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the U.S. election landscape, and proxy conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt negotiations at any moment. Particularly, even a minor military clash could lead to a sharp spike in international oil prices. Nevertheless, the world is currently opting for 'risk management' over 'complete victory.'
This reflects a harsh realism. The U.S., China, Iran, and even Israel are all acutely aware of the costs of full-scale war. If a large-scale conflict erupts in the Middle East, the global economy would inevitably plunge back into inflation and supply chain shocks.
For South Korea, this issue is even more urgent. The country has a high dependency on energy imports. If supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East are disrupted, the manufacturing, logistics, and electricity costs would all face simultaneous pressure. In particular, if the Hormuz Strait becomes unstable, the South Korean economy would be hard-hit.
Conversely, if stability in the strait and a reduction in tensions in the Middle East continue, it could provide relief for the South Korean economy. Stabilizing international oil prices would likely lead to improvements in inflation, exchange rates, and trade balances. Ultimately, the U.S.-China summit in Beijing is not merely a diplomatic event between the two nations.
It represents a shared understanding that the energy order, which serves as the last safety net for the global economy amidst the competition for supremacy in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, must not be disrupted. The oil tankers traversing the deserts of the Middle East and the diplomatic discussions in Beijing may seem like entirely different worlds on the surface. However, they are fundamentally interconnected.
In an era of global hegemony, it is ultimately energy that drives civilization, and that energy still flows through the Hormuz Strait.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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