Global venture capital investment is increasingly flowing to proven companies in a winner-take-most pattern, and the concentration is expected to sharpen this year around mega-rounds for firms nearing an initial public offering.
According to VC analytics firm THE VC, investment in unlisted startups and small and midsize companies at the seed-to-Series A stage totaled 1.919 trillion won last year, down 41.17% from a year earlier. The number of deals fell even more sharply, down 67.65% to 847.
Later-stage funding rose. Series B-to-C investment reached 3.2732 trillion won, up 6.06%, while Series D-to-pre-IPO funding climbed 20.74% to 1.3802 trillion won. In late-stage rounds, the number of deals also increased 34.92%.
The share of funding by stage shifted as well. Early-stage rounds accounted for 29.2% of total investment, down 9.8 percentage points from the 39% range in 2024. Midstage and late-stage rounds rose to 49.8% and 21%, up 5.3 and 4.5 points, respectively.
THE VC said pre-IPO investment increased noticeably, attributing it to signs of recovery in the IPO market, including broader improvements in the number of new listings and IPO demand indicators.
With expectations rising for South Korea’s stock market alongside talk of reaching a KOSPI 5,000, THE VC projected that the shift of money toward pre-IPO companies will accelerate.
In South Korea, AI startups such as FuriosaAI, Upstage and Superb AI are being discussed in the investment banking industry as potential IPO candidates in 2026.
The tilt toward big late-stage deals is also a global trend.
Crunchbase estimated that global VC investment in AI totaled US$211 billion last year, up 85% from a year earlier and above the 2021 peak. Much of the money went not to seed-to-Series A startups but to established companies such as OpenAI.
Last year, OpenAI, Anthropic, Scale AI, xAI and Project Prometheus each raised mega-rounds of at least US$5 billion. Together, the five companies raised nearly US$84 billion, about 20% of global VC investment.
U.S. media outlets including The New York Times have reported that OpenAI and Anthropic are in IPO preparation. OpenAI’s valuation, estimated at US$500 billion, could approach US$1 trillion after a listing, according to forecasts cited in the reports. Anthropic’s valuation, estimated at US$183 billion, could rise to as much as US$350 billion after an IPO.
Capital concentration was also pronounced. About 60% of global investment capital last year went to 629 companies that raised at least US$100 million, and more than 30% flowed to 68 companies that raised at least US$500 million.
A South Korean VC official said, “Starting a business will get harder, and more money will flow to companies that have begun making money.” The official added, “VCs have more cash than ever, but the mood has shifted from taking on challenges to investing in profitability.”
* This article has been translated by AI.
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