The results are widely expected to be read as a verdict on the Lee Jae-myung government, with direct implications for its governing momentum.
The June 3 vote is the administration’s first nationwide election since it took office in June last year. It also comes exactly one year after Lee’s inauguration, and it will be held alongside National Assembly by-elections in 14 districts.
According to political circles on Saturday, three former Blue House aides are running in the 14 by-elections: Kim Nam-jun, a former spokesperson, in Incheon’s Gyeyang-eul; Ha Jung-woo, former senior secretary for AI Future Planning, in Busan’s Buk-gap; and Jeon Eun-su, a former spokesperson, nominated in South Chungcheong’s Asan-eul.
In races for metropolitan and basic local government heads, Woo Sang-ho, former senior secretary for political affairs, is running for Gangwon governor, and Kim Byung-wook, former political affairs secretary, is running for Seongnam mayor.
If the direction suggested by many polls and analysts holds, the election is expected to end in a one-sided victory for the Democratic Party, allowing Lee to further consolidate control as he enters his second year in office.
Such a result could also be interpreted as voters giving the government passing marks for its risk management amid international uncertainty and supply-chain instability linked to the war in the Middle East.
After the local elections, Lee is expected to move faster on plans to diversify energy supply chains and diplomatic cooperation, accelerate the energy transition, and push to become a leading country in areas including artificial intelligence and the defense industry.
Lee’s job approval rating has recently remained in the mid-60s. A Gallup Korea poll released May 1 found 64% approved of his performance, down 3 percentage points from the previous survey.
The poll, conducted April 28-30 among 1,002 adults nationwide, found 26% disapproved, up 1 point from the prior week, while 10% were undecided.
Eom Gyeong-yeong, head of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times, said the mid-60s approval rating shows the public is giving the government a passing grade for its response to the Middle East war. He said a landslide win in the local elections would further boost the administration’s ability to govern.
The Blue House has sought to project focus on governing, including responding to the Middle East war. Lee spent the weekend without a separate official schedule.
He continued communicating on social media, however. Sharing a post by Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eok-won on X, formerly Twitter, Lee wrote, “It is acceptable not to repay illegal loans that exceed the legally permitted limit.”
The message was interpreted as signaling a tougher response to illegal private lending, noting that loan contracts exceeding the legal limit are invalid and encouraging victims to report abuses.
Lee Eok-won wrote on X on April 28 that a revised enforcement decree to the Loan Business Act, aimed at lowering barriers to reporting damage from illegal private lending, had passed a Cabinet meeting. He stressed that loan contracts with annual interest rates above 60% render both principal and interest invalid.
The Gallup Korea survey was conducted through interviewer-led telephone polling using randomly generated mobile phone numbers. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 13.3%. More details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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