Candidates Clash Over Housing Supply Plans Ahead of Seoul Mayor Election

The race for the Seoul mayoral election is narrowing down to a competition between Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-o and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon over housing supply promises. Both candidates emphasize accelerating the housing supply by streamlining administrative procedures, but doubts remain about the feasibility of their funding plans and timelines. Concerns are growing about potential physical limitations and procurement challenges, highlighting the need for a concrete execution roadmap.

According to the redevelopment industry on May 14, Jeong Won-o announced on May 12 that he aims to supply a total of 360,000 housing units across both private and public sectors by 2031. Last month, he unveiled a blueprint for his 'smooth development' initiative, which aims to reduce the typical 15-year project timeline to within 10 years by supporting the entire redevelopment process until occupancy.

Additionally, Jeong plans to implement a 'simultaneous application system' that allows for concurrent progress on basic plans and designation of redevelopment areas, as well as approval of redevelopment plans in a single assembly meeting. He also aims to expedite the early construction of 32,000 affordable housing units in the city and increase the annual supply of rental units, including villas and officetels, to between 7,000 and 9,000.

In contrast, Oh Se-hoon plans to expedite the supply of 310,000 housing units during his term by designating 85 projects that have reached the critical point of management approval as 'core strategic redevelopment areas.' His strategy involves mobilizing all city resources to advance construction timelines by more than a year.

To address the chronic delays in redevelopment projects, Oh intends to launch a 'rapid integration' system to streamline administrative processes and establish a unified review system for project implementation and management approvals.

However, both candidates have yet to provide clear execution plans or realistic timelines for construction and occupancy.

Jeong's proposal for 360,000 units, which is 50,000 more than Oh's, relies on 'purchase rentals,' but the feasibility of securing funding is considered low. The funds needed to secure an additional 50,000 rental units vary based on the purchase method and unit price, but even at 500 million won per unit, it would require at least 25 trillion won. Given the city's annual budget, it is challenging to allocate over 25 trillion won within a specific term.

Moreover, implementing the simultaneous application system requires amending the current Urban and Residential Environment Improvement Act, necessitating cooperation with the central government and the National Assembly.

For Oh, among the 310,000 units, 85,000 in the 'core strategic redevelopment areas' are already at the management approval or relocation/demolition stages, making a 2031 construction start feasible, according to industry assessments. However, the timeline for the remaining 225,000 units remains uncertain. Oh's flagship rapid integration planning initiative has seen only two out of 224 candidate sites begin construction as of the end of last year, resulting in an execution rate of just 0.9%.

Oh also proposed supporting construction funding through special housing project accounts and housing promotion funds by 2031, along with expanding low-interest loans. However, critics argue that these funds are already earmarked for existing rental housing management and housing benefit support, and the total amount remains insufficient for large-scale redevelopment projects.

Critics have pointed out that the proposed construction timelines from both candidates may not be realistic. The standard duration for redevelopment projects typically spans 10 to 15 years. To meet the promised 2031 construction start, all target areas must reach at least the 'association establishment approval' stage by the end of this year. Adding the 3 to 4 years required for completion after construction begins suggests that the actual occupancy for the promised 2031 housing supply could extend into 2034 or 2035.

An industry insider noted, "The anxiety felt on the ground stems not only from the speed of approvals but also from the soaring construction costs and interest rate burdens, which create structural delays in securing construction timing even after management approval. Concrete solutions for funding procurement and conflict resolution must be included in the candidates' pledges."