In May 2026, the US-China summit held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing was more than just a diplomatic event between the two nations' leaders. It was a pivotal moment where the world's largest strategic competitors, the United States and China, recalibrated the direction of global order amid a delicate balance of conflict and cooperation. Central to these discussions was the ongoing issue of North Korea.
President Donald Trump stated shortly after the meeting that he had discussed the North Korean issue with President Xi Jinping. This brief comment prompted immediate reactions from the international diplomatic community, signaling that North Korea had once again become a key topic in the US-China strategic dialogue.
For decades, the North Korean issue has been one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the international order of Northeast Asia. For the United States, it represents a nuclear threat; for China, it is a matter of regime stability and a buffer zone; for South Korea, it is a question of survival amid the specter of war and peace. Japan views it through the lens of security anxiety, while Russia sees it as a geopolitical issue linked to its Far East strategy.
Recent visits by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Pyongyang underscore this trend. His first visit to the North Korean capital in over six years sent a significant political message. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, relations between North Korea and China have been marked by a new level of tension. North Korea has rapidly strengthened its ties with Russia, while China has appeared to distance itself somewhat.
Since the Ukraine war, the relationship between North Korea and Russia has evolved into a military alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have strengthened strategic cooperation through summit meetings, with Western intelligence suggesting that North Korea has provided munitions and military supplies to Russia. In return, Russia has offered military technology, energy, and food assistance to North Korea, deepening their ties.
From North Korea's perspective, Russia has become a strategic ally that alleviates the pressure of international sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia, facing a protracted conflict in Ukraine, has found a military supply chain in North Korea. The interests of both nations have aligned.
However, for China, North Korea's excessive alignment with Russia is an unwelcome scenario. North Korea falls within China's traditional sphere of influence, and Beijing does not desire a sudden change in the Korean Peninsula's status quo, nor does it want North Korea to tilt entirely toward Russia. Thus, Wang Yi's visit to North Korea is seen as an effort to restore and reaffirm China's influence in the region.
Interestingly, the relationship between President Trump and Kim Jong Un remains significant. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that he maintains a good relationship with Kim. The unprecedented diplomacy displayed during their meetings in Singapore and at the Panmunjom border surprised the world. However, since the collapse of the Hanoi summit, US-North Korea relations have effectively stalled.
Kim has grown increasingly distrustful of the United States, while Trump has had to deprioritize the North Korean issue amid domestic political pressures. Nonetheless, Trump still aspires to be remembered as the US president who resolved the North Korean nuclear issue and achieved peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The motivation behind this ambition is clear. Resolving the North Korean issue transcends mere diplomatic achievement; it carries the potential for a Nobel Peace Prize-level significance. No US president has fundamentally resolved the North Korean nuclear issue in history. If Trump can achieve tangible progress in freezing North Korea's nuclear program, implementing phased denuclearization, and establishing a peace regime, it could be recorded as one of the greatest diplomatic accomplishments since the Cold War.
However, the reality in North Korea is challenging. Recently, North Korea has rapidly advanced its nuclear weapons systems and defense industry. It is moving beyond simple nuclear development to establish a multi-layered nuclear capability, including tactical nuclear systems, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
This represents a qualitative shift from the past. North Korea now views nuclear possession not as a bargaining chip but as an absolute condition for regime survival. The Kim regime has elevated nuclear power to a constitutional level of national strategy, while the defense industry has been restructured as a core pillar of the national economy.
The expansion of military cooperation with Russia is introducing new variables into North Korea's defense industry modernization. Discussions of military technology exchanges and potential satellite technology cooperation are emerging. North Korea aims to strengthen its asymmetric capabilities to withstand US military pressure.
In this context, South Korea's role is becoming increasingly important. President Lee Jae-myung has recently emphasized the need for easing tensions between the two Koreas and establishing a phased peace roadmap. His approach advocates for restoring dialogue through economic cooperation, military tension reduction, and humanitarian exchanges.
The Lee administration is particularly inclined to approach the Korean Peninsula issue not merely as an ideological confrontation but as a matter of survival and economics. As the possibility of war increases, the South Korean economy, financial markets, and foreign investment sentiment face direct threats.
However, the reality is complex. The United States is strengthening security cooperation with South Korea and Japan to counter China, while Japan is accelerating its defense spending and long-range strike capabilities. Conversely, North Korea, Russia, and to some extent China are strategically aligning, creating a new Cold War atmosphere in Northeast Asia.
Some analysts suggest that a de facto 'US-South Korea-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia' structure is already forming in Northeast Asia. This implies the potential emergence of a collective security framework similar to NATO in Europe.
Yet, Northeast Asia is distinct from Europe. Its history, ethnicities, and economies are far more intricately intertwined. China and the United States are each other's largest trading partners, even as they clash, and South Korea's security is deeply connected to the US while its economy is intertwined with China. The North Korean issue is not merely a military concern but is also intertwined with regime stability, history, economics, and ethnicity.
The ancient Chinese text, the Dao De Jing, states, "A great nation should remain lowly." This suggests that stronger nations should prioritize humility and order over power. This sentiment resonates deeply in today's US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula issue.
Additionally, the Analects of Confucius states, "The noble person seeks harmony but does not seek sameness; the petty person seeks sameness but cannot achieve harmony." This reflects the ancient wisdom of East Asian civilization, advocating for coexistence and harmony despite differing systems and ideologies.
The Buddhist Dhammapada also teaches, "Hatred does not cease by hatred, but only by love." This ancient wisdom prompts us to reconsider what the last hope for human civilization is amid nuclear weapons, missiles, military alliances, and hegemonic competition.
Ultimately, the path to peace is not easy. However, paradoxically, the higher the tension, the greater the need for dialogue. Nuclear weapons, missiles, military alliances, and strategic competition alone cannot resolve the future of the Korean Peninsula.
The discussions between President Trump and President Xi on the North Korean issue may have reaffirmed this reality. Great powers often rediscover the necessity of negotiation just before the brink of conflict. Likewise, the prospect for peace on the Korean Peninsula may gradually advance through a cycle of confrontation and negotiation.
Spring does not arrive overnight. Yet, throughout history, humanity has always awaited spring after a long winter. The same applies to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Today, Northeast Asia stands under a vast geopolitical cloud, but within it, the refusal to abandon the possibilities of dialogue, restraint, and mutual coexistence is the true beginning of diplomacy.
President Donald Trump stated shortly after the meeting that he had discussed the North Korean issue with President Xi Jinping. This brief comment prompted immediate reactions from the international diplomatic community, signaling that North Korea had once again become a key topic in the US-China strategic dialogue.
For decades, the North Korean issue has been one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the international order of Northeast Asia. For the United States, it represents a nuclear threat; for China, it is a matter of regime stability and a buffer zone; for South Korea, it is a question of survival amid the specter of war and peace. Japan views it through the lens of security anxiety, while Russia sees it as a geopolitical issue linked to its Far East strategy.
Recent visits by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Pyongyang underscore this trend. His first visit to the North Korean capital in over six years sent a significant political message. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, relations between North Korea and China have been marked by a new level of tension. North Korea has rapidly strengthened its ties with Russia, while China has appeared to distance itself somewhat.
Since the Ukraine war, the relationship between North Korea and Russia has evolved into a military alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have strengthened strategic cooperation through summit meetings, with Western intelligence suggesting that North Korea has provided munitions and military supplies to Russia. In return, Russia has offered military technology, energy, and food assistance to North Korea, deepening their ties.
From North Korea's perspective, Russia has become a strategic ally that alleviates the pressure of international sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia, facing a protracted conflict in Ukraine, has found a military supply chain in North Korea. The interests of both nations have aligned.
However, for China, North Korea's excessive alignment with Russia is an unwelcome scenario. North Korea falls within China's traditional sphere of influence, and Beijing does not desire a sudden change in the Korean Peninsula's status quo, nor does it want North Korea to tilt entirely toward Russia. Thus, Wang Yi's visit to North Korea is seen as an effort to restore and reaffirm China's influence in the region.
Interestingly, the relationship between President Trump and Kim Jong Un remains significant. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that he maintains a good relationship with Kim. The unprecedented diplomacy displayed during their meetings in Singapore and at the Panmunjom border surprised the world. However, since the collapse of the Hanoi summit, US-North Korea relations have effectively stalled.
Kim has grown increasingly distrustful of the United States, while Trump has had to deprioritize the North Korean issue amid domestic political pressures. Nonetheless, Trump still aspires to be remembered as the US president who resolved the North Korean nuclear issue and achieved peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The motivation behind this ambition is clear. Resolving the North Korean issue transcends mere diplomatic achievement; it carries the potential for a Nobel Peace Prize-level significance. No US president has fundamentally resolved the North Korean nuclear issue in history. If Trump can achieve tangible progress in freezing North Korea's nuclear program, implementing phased denuclearization, and establishing a peace regime, it could be recorded as one of the greatest diplomatic accomplishments since the Cold War.
However, the reality in North Korea is challenging. Recently, North Korea has rapidly advanced its nuclear weapons systems and defense industry. It is moving beyond simple nuclear development to establish a multi-layered nuclear capability, including tactical nuclear systems, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
This represents a qualitative shift from the past. North Korea now views nuclear possession not as a bargaining chip but as an absolute condition for regime survival. The Kim regime has elevated nuclear power to a constitutional level of national strategy, while the defense industry has been restructured as a core pillar of the national economy.
The expansion of military cooperation with Russia is introducing new variables into North Korea's defense industry modernization. Discussions of military technology exchanges and potential satellite technology cooperation are emerging. North Korea aims to strengthen its asymmetric capabilities to withstand US military pressure.
In this context, South Korea's role is becoming increasingly important. President Lee Jae-myung has recently emphasized the need for easing tensions between the two Koreas and establishing a phased peace roadmap. His approach advocates for restoring dialogue through economic cooperation, military tension reduction, and humanitarian exchanges.
The Lee administration is particularly inclined to approach the Korean Peninsula issue not merely as an ideological confrontation but as a matter of survival and economics. As the possibility of war increases, the South Korean economy, financial markets, and foreign investment sentiment face direct threats.
However, the reality is complex. The United States is strengthening security cooperation with South Korea and Japan to counter China, while Japan is accelerating its defense spending and long-range strike capabilities. Conversely, North Korea, Russia, and to some extent China are strategically aligning, creating a new Cold War atmosphere in Northeast Asia.
Some analysts suggest that a de facto 'US-South Korea-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia' structure is already forming in Northeast Asia. This implies the potential emergence of a collective security framework similar to NATO in Europe.
Yet, Northeast Asia is distinct from Europe. Its history, ethnicities, and economies are far more intricately intertwined. China and the United States are each other's largest trading partners, even as they clash, and South Korea's security is deeply connected to the US while its economy is intertwined with China. The North Korean issue is not merely a military concern but is also intertwined with regime stability, history, economics, and ethnicity.
The ancient Chinese text, the Dao De Jing, states, "A great nation should remain lowly." This suggests that stronger nations should prioritize humility and order over power. This sentiment resonates deeply in today's US-China relations and the Korean Peninsula issue.
Additionally, the Analects of Confucius states, "The noble person seeks harmony but does not seek sameness; the petty person seeks sameness but cannot achieve harmony." This reflects the ancient wisdom of East Asian civilization, advocating for coexistence and harmony despite differing systems and ideologies.
The Buddhist Dhammapada also teaches, "Hatred does not cease by hatred, but only by love." This ancient wisdom prompts us to reconsider what the last hope for human civilization is amid nuclear weapons, missiles, military alliances, and hegemonic competition.
Ultimately, the path to peace is not easy. However, paradoxically, the higher the tension, the greater the need for dialogue. Nuclear weapons, missiles, military alliances, and strategic competition alone cannot resolve the future of the Korean Peninsula.
The discussions between President Trump and President Xi on the North Korean issue may have reaffirmed this reality. Great powers often rediscover the necessity of negotiation just before the brink of conflict. Likewise, the prospect for peace on the Korean Peninsula may gradually advance through a cycle of confrontation and negotiation.
Spring does not arrive overnight. Yet, throughout history, humanity has always awaited spring after a long winter. The same applies to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Today, Northeast Asia stands under a vast geopolitical cloud, but within it, the refusal to abandon the possibilities of dialogue, restraint, and mutual coexistence is the true beginning of diplomacy.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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