The release of exit polls for the June 3 local elections has left both lawmakers and voters in a state of confusion. This is due to conflicting results from a joint exit poll conducted by three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) and a prediction poll by JTBC, which presented differing outcomes. In some regions, the discrepancies were significant, while in others, the forecasts for winners and losers varied widely. Even before the counting began, reactions poured in questioning which poll results to trust.
According to the exit poll from the three broadcasters, the Democratic Party appears to be on track for a significant victory.
In the Seoul mayoral race, candidate Jeong Won-o received 51.4%, leading Oh Se-hoon, who garnered 46.0%, by 5.4 percentage points. In the Gyeonggi governor's race, candidate Choo Mi-ae recorded 60.4%, significantly ahead of Yang Hyang-ja, who received 34.1%. In the Incheon mayoral election, Park Chan-dae was projected to win with 53.7%, compared to Yoo Jeong-bok's 45.5%.
In Busan, candidate Jeon Jae-soo was expected to win with 50.2% against Park Hyung-joon, who had 48.3%. The races for mayor in Ulsan and governor in Gyeongnam were also projected to be won by candidates Kim Sang-wook and Kim Kyung-soo, respectively.
Based solely on the broadcasters' exit poll results, the Democratic Party is interpreted as having a strong hold on the metropolitan area, as well as achieving significant results in the so-called PK region of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Some analysts even suggest that the party has gained a favorable position in this nationwide election.
However, the JTBC prediction poll tells a different story.
While the Democratic Party maintained a leading trend in the Seoul, Busan, Incheon, and Gyeonggi races, JTBC classified five regions—Chungbuk, Chungnam, Gyeongnam, Jeonbuk, and Daegu—as competitive. Regions where the broadcasters indicated a clear advantage for the Democratic Party were still considered toss-ups by JTBC.
For instance, in the Chungbuk gubernatorial race, the broadcasters projected Shin Yong-han to lead Kim Young-hwan by 12.4 percentage points, while JTBC viewed it as a competitive race with only a 4.4-point margin. Similarly, in the Gyeongnam gubernatorial race, the broadcasters predicted Kim Kyung-soo would lead by 8.6 points, but JTBC classified it as a close contest with just a 4.6-point difference.
The gubernatorial race in Gangwon also showed a significant difference. The broadcasters estimated a 2.6-point gap between Woo Sang-ho and Kim Jin-tae, while JTBC projected a 13.8-point difference. The Seoul mayoral race also exhibited a gap of over 5 percentage points between the two polls.
The most striking divergence was seen in the by-election for the Busan North Gap National Assembly seat.
The broadcasters reported Ha Jung-woo leading with 42.6% over Han Dong-hoon, who had 41.6%. However, JTBC predicted Han would win with 48.1% to Ha's 37.6%, flipping the expected outcome beyond mere margins of error.
In the Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek election, the broadcasters indicated a tight race among candidates Jo Guk, Yoo Yi-dong, and Kim Yong-nam, each around 30%. In contrast, JTBC forecasted Kim Yong-nam as the frontrunner.
As a result, the political atmosphere remains cautious, with parties hesitant to declare victory or concede defeat immediately following the exit poll announcements.
The Democratic Party may interpret the broadcasters' results as evidence of expanded influence in the metropolitan and Chungcheong regions, as well as parts of the PK area. Conversely, the People Power Party is focusing on the fact that many regions remain competitive according to the JTBC poll, raising hopes for a potential turnaround.
Particularly, Daegu, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeonbuk are seen as key areas for assessing future electoral dynamics. While the broadcasters show a strong trend favoring the Democratic Party, the JTBC results suggest that it is difficult to predict outcomes until the counting is complete. This discrepancy in interpretations of the same election is why the political landscape remains divided.
Ultimately, the final answers will come from the counting results. While exit polls are important indicators of public sentiment, it is rare for major broadcasters' predictions to diverge so significantly. This local election is likely to be remembered not only for the candidates' victories and defeats but also for the accuracy of the exit polling organizations' forecasts.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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