Opta Predicts South Korea's Chances of Advancing in World Cup at 70.35%

South Korea's Son Heung-min celebrates scoring the first goal during a friendly match against Trinidad and Tobago at Brigham Young University's South Field in Provo, Utah, on May 30. [Photo=Yonhap News]

Soccer statistics provider Opta has predicted that South Korea's national team has a 70.35% chance of advancing to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.

On June 2, Opta released simulation results on its official website, forecasting the performance of the 48 participating countries ahead of the tournament. Using a supercomputer, the simulations were run 10,000 times to derive the results.

This World Cup marks the first time the number of participating teams has expanded from 32 to 48. The group stage has been restructured into 12 groups, with the knockout stage beginning at the round of 32. A total of 32 teams will qualify for the tournament, including the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams.

In this context, Opta estimates that under head coach Hong Myung-bo, South Korea has a 70.35% chance of reaching the round of 32. The probability of advancing to the round of 16 is 33.52%, while the chances of making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals are projected at 12.74%, 4.02%, and 1.30%, respectively. The likelihood of winning the tournament is estimated at 0.36%.

Compared to its group rivals in Group A, South Korea's chances of advancing to the knockout stage appear favorable. Mexico, considered the strongest team in the group, has an 87.1% chance of reaching the round of 32. The Czech Republic, expected to compete closely with South Korea for second place, has a 63.38% chance, while South Africa, viewed as the weakest team in the group, stands at 49.29%.

Opta's supercomputer has identified Spain as a strong contender for the title in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. [Photo=Opta website capture]

Spain is identified as a leading contender for the championship, with a 16.1% chance of winning.

Opta explained its selection of Spain as the top favorite, stating, "The presence of Lamine Yamal, known as 'the talent of the century' from FC Barcelona, is significant. He was a key player in Spain's triumph at UEFA Euro 2024, showcasing overwhelming performance. Yamal's momentum leading up to the tournament is also fierce, having recorded 41 attacking points (24 goals and 17 assists) in official matches this season. He is second among La Liga players in goal involvement, following Kylian Mbappe (48 points, Real Madrid)."

Following Spain, other top contenders include France (12.98%), England (11.18%), defending champions Argentina (10.36%), Portugal (7.00%), Brazil (6.61%), Germany (5.12%), the Netherlands (3.62%), Norway (3.51%), and Belgium (2.37%).

* This article has been translated by AI.

Kang Sang Heon