SEOUL, June 18 (AJP) - The U.S.-Iran MOU stops the shooting and reopens Hormuz after signing on Friday, but it leaves the nuclear endgame vague and replaces the old Gulf oil order with a fragile 60-day bargain.
The memorandum is not a permanent nuclear settlement. Its strongest provisions are practical and immediate: end military operations, lift the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days, allow Iranian oil exports through waivers, release frozen funds, and secure no-charge commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days only.
“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” President Donald Trump said at the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit of global leaders in Évian-les-Bains, France, on Wednesday.
The nuclear clause merely has Iran reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons and accept on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision; it does not clearly require permanent dismantlement, shipment of enriched material abroad, closure of facilities or a defined inspection regime.
That means the war ends without settling the question that started it. The real bargain is time: Washington gets Hormuz open, markets calm and a cease-fire before the conflict spreads further. Tehran gets economic oxygen — oil waivers, frozen funds and the outline of a non-U.S. $300 billion reconstruction and development plan.
The biggest strategic shift is Hormuz. The MOU restores safe passage for now, but only toll-free for two months. After that, Iran and Oman are to discuss future administration and maritime services with other Gulf states.
That suggests the prewar model — free passage under overwhelming U.S. naval dominance — is over. Gulf oil may still flow, but under a more negotiated, politicized and potentially fee-based order.
For the global economy, the immediate effect is disinflationary: lower war-risk premiums, steadier oil flows and relief for shipping, aviation and petrochemicals. But the medium-term effect is more complex. If Iran regains export capacity while sanctions relief begins, crude supply improves.
Yet if Hormuz becomes a managed passage with fees, inspections or political bargaining, energy prices may carry a lasting geopolitical premium.
For South Korea, the MOU is positive but not clean. Korea benefits from lower oil shock risk, cheaper freight insurance and calmer won-dollar pressure. Refiners, airlines, chemicals and shipbuilders gain from restored Gulf traffic.
But Korea’s energy security calculus worsens if Hormuz is no longer assumed to be permanently free. Seoul will have to price in a postwar Gulf where Iran has more leverage, Gulf states pay more for security, and Korean defense exports remain structurally supported by regional rearmament.
Before is the full text of the MoU released through various media outlets.
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