On July 6, China launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from a nuclear submarine into the Pacific Ocean. Reports indicate that China notified Japan of the launch plan approximately 90 minutes prior. Among the areas designated by China as potential missile drop zones was part of Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
According to Japanese media, including the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), the Japanese embassy in China received notification of the ballistic missile launch plan from the Chinese Ministry of Defense at 11:30 a.m. on July 6. The Japanese government strongly urged China to reconsider the launch plan to ensure Japan's safety.
About 90 minutes later, at 1:01 p.m., the Chinese Navy launched one missile from a strategic nuclear submarine. China identified four potential drop zones in the Pacific, extending from east of the Philippines to east of Papua New Guinea, one of which included part of Japan's EEZ south of Shionomisaki in Wakayama Prefecture.
On July 5, a day before the formal notification of the ballistic missile launch, China informed Japan's Coast Guard of a danger zone due to 'space debris.' Although the specific missile launch plan was not disclosed at that time, the inclusion of Japan's EEZ in the danger zone heightened tensions within the Japanese government, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun.
It has been confirmed that the missile did not pass over Japanese territory or its EEZ, and the drop point was determined to be outside Japan's EEZ. No damage to Japanese aircraft or vessels has been reported. However, a senior Japanese government official stated, 'If the missile had passed over the Japanese archipelago, it would have been a serious situation.' The Nikkei reported that a senior Japanese government official suggested that if China had launched the missile in a direction closer to Japan, it could have passed over Kyushu.
The Asahi Shimbun cited military experts who believe the launched missile is likely the new JL-3 SLBM, which has a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers. The Chinese military did not disclose the type of missile, launch location, specific drop point, or submarine model.
Japanese government officials analyzed that the launch was intended to showcase the operational capabilities of China's strategic nuclear submarines. According to the Yomiuri, a Japanese government official remarked, 'They aimed to demonstrate that strategic submarines can carry out actual missions,' while a Self-Defense Forces officer speculated that the launch may have been intended to enhance the proficiency of China's submarine forces.
Katsuya Yamamoto, head of the Sasagawa Peace Foundation's Strategy and Deterrence Group, explained in an interview with the Yomiuri that the Chinese military has primarily conducted SLBM launches toward the mainland from near its coast. He suggested that this Pacific launch marks a new phase in which China's strategic submarine forces are beginning to operate nuclear deterrent capabilities in open waters, predicting that similar exercises may be repeated in the future.
On July 6, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kiuchi stated at a press conference, 'China's military activities, which lack transparency, are a serious concern for Japan and the international community.' However, according to the Asahi, a Foreign Ministry official indicated that rather than responding immediately with a hardline stance, it is important to calmly analyze the intentions behind China's notification of the launch plan and related areas.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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