The international oil supply chain is facing disruptions due to Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait, with tensions now extending to the Red Sea, raising concerns in the global energy market. Experts warn that simultaneous disruptions in these two major oil transport routes could lead to a global economic recession.
According to the Wall Street Journal, on July 17, Saudi Arabia has been increasing its oil exports through the Red Sea following the blockade of the Hormuz Strait. However, this effort is now threatened by a shaky ceasefire with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Currently, Saudi Arabia transports oil from its eastern fields to the western Red Sea port of Yanbu via an east-west pipeline, exporting approximately 4.6 million barrels per day through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This figure, however, falls short of the pre-war level of 7.3 million barrels per day.
The concern lies in the possibility that the Iran-aligned Houthi forces, who control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, may resume attacks on shipping vessels.
Since 2022, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have maintained a ceasefire, but recent exchanges of airstrikes and missile attacks have escalated military tensions.
On July 13, Saudi and Yemeni government forces conducted airstrikes on the international airport in Sana'a, the Houthi-controlled capital, prompting the Houthis to retaliate with ballistic missiles and drones targeting Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia.
Market analysts fear that if the Houthis attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea or target Saudi ports and oil facilities, it could create a worst-case scenario where both major oil transport routes in the Middle East are disrupted simultaneously, coinciding with the Hormuz Strait blockade.
Capital Economics, a UK economic analysis firm, predicts that if both the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits are incapacitated for an extended period, or if Saudi oil pipelines and port facilities suffer significant damage, the global economy could fall into recession.
April Longley Alley, a senior political advisor at the UN Yemen envoy's office, stated, "The Houthis perceive the current situation as an opportunity to their advantage and are likely to escalate tensions to gain greater leverage."
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, expressed concern, stating, "The situation in the Red Sea is deteriorating again," and warned that Houthi missile attacks could quickly spread instability from land to sea.
However, experts believe that the Houthis are more likely to adopt a strategy of gradually increasing tensions rather than launching a full-scale blockade or large military actions. This approach may be aimed at drawing Saudi Arabia back to the negotiating table to enhance their bargaining power for resuming flights at Sana'a International Airport and increasing the flow of goods.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.