The government is expanding private sector participation in the natural gas storage system, which has been primarily public, and is establishing an artificial intelligence (AI)-based system to predict supply crises. By 2038, the plan aims to secure a maximum storage capacity of 8.87 million tons through the expansion of private storage tanks.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on July 27 that it has finalized and publicized the 16th Long-term Natural Gas Supply Plan, which outlines projections for natural gas demand, resource security, import and supply management, and supply base expansion from 2026 to 2038.
According to the plan, the baseline demand for natural gas is expected to decrease from 45.91 million tons in 2026 to 41 million tons in 2038, averaging a decline of 0.94% per year.
Projections for specific uses varied. Demand for city gas is anticipated to increase from 23.56 million tons to 28.16 million tons during the same period, averaging a rise of 1.50% annually. In contrast, demand for power generation is expected to drop from 22.35 million tons to 12.84 million tons, averaging a decrease of 4.51%. This estimate is based on the power generation composition outlined in the 11th Basic Plan for Power Supply, finalized last February.
The government has separately calculated the demand for supply management, considering the volatility in demand for natural gas for power generation. This demand is projected to increase slightly from 47.62 million tons in 2026 to 47.67 million tons in 2038, maintaining a stable level. The government plans to utilize this for expanding natural gas supply facilities and long-term import contracts.
The current projections do not account for changes in demand for natural gas for power generation due to three major projects: semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers. The Ministry plans to revise and supplement the demand forecast once the 12th Basic Plan for Power Supply is finalized.
Private sector participation in natural gas storage will be expanded. The government will allow private entities, such as direct importers for self-consumption, to participate in the currently public-centric storage system and will utilize existing public infrastructure to reduce the burden of constructing new facilities.
An integrated system for managing import and inventory information for both public and private sectors will also be established. The government plans to use AI to predict supply crises and conduct scenario simulations to create a proactive response system.
To enhance import stability, the government will promote diversification of supply sources and the expansion of long-term contracts. This aims to reduce exposure to the highly volatile spot market and prevent sharp increases in import prices due to spikes in specific price indices by creating a portfolio that utilizes various price indices, including oil and gas prices.
The government will also expand the supply base. It plans to secure a maximum storage capacity of 8.87 million tons by expanding private storage tanks and constructing an additional 564 kilometers of main natural gas pipelines by 2038.
In areas where new demand for city gas arises, the government will establish supply points considering economic viability and public interest. In regions where city gas supply is challenging, it plans to expand liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pipeline projects based on local demand and economic factors.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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