The competition for dominance in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, a key component for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, is intensifying. SK Hynix maintains its lead with a 50% market share, while Samsung Electronics is rapidly increasing its share, narrowing the gap between the two companies. As the transition from HBM3E to HBM4 begins in the second half of the year, forecasts suggest that Samsung could take the top spot in the HBM4 market next year.
Additionally, U.S. company Micron is expanding its HBM4 production capacity, and China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has started small-scale production of HBM3E, further intensifying the competitive landscape in the HBM market.
According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix held a 50% share of the global HBM market by revenue in the second quarter of this year, although this is down from 58% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Samsung's share increased from 21% to 33%, reducing the gap between the two companies from 37 percentage points to 17. Micron ranked third with an 18% share.
As HBM4 shipments ramp up in the second half of the year, competition between Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to intensify. Currently, most HBM market revenue comes from the fifth-generation HBM3E, but the market focus is shifting to the sixth-generation HBM4, which will be used in NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerator, the 'Hopper'.
Samsung plans to triple its HBM4 revenue in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. SK Hynix is also ramping up production after stabilizing yields for HBM4. Both companies are accelerating the development of the next-generation HBM4E.
There are predictions that SK Hynix's current market advantage in HBM3E may not carry over to HBM4. Global investment bank UBS forecasts that Samsung will capture a 41% share of the HBM4 market next year, surpassing SK Hynix's projected 39%. Samsung's total HBM shipments are expected to increase by 124% this year and by 137% next year.
KB Securities also predicts that Samsung will achieve a 44% market share in the HBM4 sector next year, with the average selling price (ASP) of Samsung's HBM products expected to more than double compared to the previous year.
Micron is also pursuing Samsung and SK Hynix by expanding its HBM4 production capacity. Industry sources indicate that Micron plans to add up to 60,000 wafers per month by the end of this year, bringing its total capacity to around 100,000 wafers, doubling its previous capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers per month.
The production share of HBM4 12-layer chips is expected to rise from 20-30% at the beginning of the year to as much as 50% by year-end. Micron began mass production of HBM4 12-layer chips in the second quarter, with cumulative shipment revenue exceeding $1 billion.
China's competition is also heating up. CXMT, China's largest DRAM manufacturer, has recently started small-scale production of HBM3E. It plans to begin full-scale production in 2027, with plans to supply Chinese fabless semiconductor companies as early as that year. Alibaba's semiconductor subsidiary T-head and Chinese AI semiconductor firm Cambrian are reportedly evaluating CXMT's HBM3E for their processors.
CXMT was initially expected to start mass production of HBM3 this year, but it is accelerating development of the higher-level HBM3E. Considering that Samsung and SK Hynix plan to begin mass production of HBM3E in 2024, there is an estimated three-year technology gap at the time of mass production.
However, CXMT's HBM products are assessed to have lower reliability and speed compared to those from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Additionally, as Samsung and SK Hynix are already expanding HBM4 supply and developing HBM4E, a gap in product generations remains.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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