As the domestic stock market improves, driven by a surge in semiconductor stocks due to the AI boom in the U.S., investor deposits have surpassed 100 trillion won. Attention is now on whether retail investors, who have been exiting the market around the '7000-point' mark, will return after the holiday.
According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, investor deposits reached 100.98 trillion won on September 25. This marks a return to the 100 trillion won level after five trading days since hitting 105.33 trillion won on September 15.
Investor deposits fell to 99.57 trillion won on September 16 and 97.49 trillion won on September 17, remaining in the 98 trillion won range on September 18 (98.33 trillion won) and September 21 (98.14 trillion won).
However, as the KOSPI index broke back above the 7000-point mark on September 21 (7007.92) after seven trading days, investor sentiment has revived, leading to an increase in deposits. On that day, the KOSPI closed up 0.90% at 7080.92.
The balance of margin trading, which reflects retail investors' willingness to borrow for investment, stood at 32.81 trillion won, a slight decrease from the previous day's 33.05 trillion won.
In the KOSPI market, the margin trading balance rose slightly to 25.61 trillion won from 25.90 trillion won the day before, while the KOSDAQ market's margin trading balance increased to 7.21 trillion won from 7.16 trillion won.
The margin balance peaked at 38.63 trillion won on June 24 but fell to 27.40 trillion won by August 4. It has since gradually increased, fluctuating between 32 trillion and 33 trillion won.
The short-term margin trading balance decreased to 8.54 trillion won from 8.72 trillion won the previous trading day. The forced liquidation due to unpaid balances amounted to 3.7 billion won, accounting for 0.4% of the margin balance.
Since the KOSPI's peak in June, individual investors have been rapidly securing cash by exiting the stock market, particularly after the index reached the 7000-point mark.
In fact, individual direct investment saw a record outflow of 13.55 trillion won in August. The outflow has accelerated in September, with a net outflow of 9.83 trillion won as of September 18, averaging higher than in August.
On September 23, institutional investors purchased 323.3 billion won, financial investors bought 382.3 billion won, and other corporations acquired 1.63 trillion won in the securities market, while individuals sold 1.45 trillion won for four consecutive trading days.
Foreign investors halted a three-day buying streak, selling 498.7 billion won.
With individual investors withdrawing from the market, attention is now focused on market movements after the holiday. Analysts believe that foreign investors will play a crucial role in determining the direction of the KOSPI rebound, suggesting a cautious approach.
Shin Young Securities noted that external pressures, such as the Federal Open Market Committee's 0.25 percentage point rate hike and rising oil prices, along with domestic interest rate trends, are dampening investor sentiment, warranting a careful approach.
In particular, the supply-demand burden is increasing due to the management of liquidity coverage ratios (LCR) at the end of the quarter and proactive high-interest issuance by semiconductor companies in anticipation of deposit maturities. The interest rate on three-year AA- rated credit card bonds has also risen to around 4.7%, with a high-interest refinancing burden of 7.4 trillion won expected by year-end, which could impact fourth-quarter performance.
Some analysts suggest maintaining a portfolio focused on sectors expected to improve in the third quarter. Kim Dae-jun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated, "In a situation where trading is expected to decrease, sectors that have attracted market interest are likely to continue on their upward trajectory," adding that a rebound in the won-dollar exchange rate could positively affect the profitability of export companies and improve their won-denominated earnings.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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