As the domestic stock market resumes trading on October 12 following the Hangul Day holiday, attention is focused on the stock price movements of major semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The KOSPI index fell more than 2% on the last trading day, October 8, amid shaken investor sentiment surrounding AI-related technology stocks in the U.S., raising concerns about increased volatility in the domestic market after the holiday.
However, the U.S. stock market showed mixed signals, with major indices rebounding on October 9 after the decline on the 8th. Therefore, on October 12, the domestic market will need to assess the follow-up movements of the U.S. semiconductor sector along with domestic investor sentiment.
KOSPI Drops 2.62%... Samsung's Strong Earnings Fail to Support Stock Price
According to the Korea Exchange, the KOSPI closed at 6,625.93 on October 8, down 177.97 points (2.62%) from the previous trading day. The KOSDAQ index also fell by 6.16 points (0.69%) to 892.27. The combined selling pressure from foreign and institutional investors weighed heavily on large-cap stocks.
Notably, Samsung Electronics announced a preliminary operating profit of 107.4 trillion won for the third quarter, yet its stock price declined. On October 8, Samsung's stock closed at 262,000 won, down 2.42%, while SK Hynix fell 2.44% to 1,681,000 won. This decline may reflect market evaluations regarding whether the expectations for improved performance had already been priced in and whether future growth can be sustained.
U.S. Semiconductor Stocks Adjust... AI Investment Hopes Under Pressure
In the U.S. market, uncertainties surrounding the growth expectations of the AI industry have emerged as a backdrop for the weakness in tech stocks. According to Reuters, the Nasdaq index fell 1.25% on October 8, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.47%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell by about 3.4%. Reports regarding OpenAI's revenue outlook have impacted growth expectations for AI-related companies, compounded by rising international oil prices and treasury yield pressures.
However, on October 9, major U.S. indices rebounded. According to the Associated Press, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 0.6% each. In contrast, the semiconductor sector did not participate in this rebound.
This indicates the need to distinguish between the overall recovery of the U.S. market and the investment sentiment in the semiconductor sector. On October 12, the domestic market should not assume a recovery in semiconductor stocks solely based on the rebound of major U.S. indices but should also monitor whether there will be further declines in the semiconductor sector and if concerns regarding AI investments are alleviated.
Memory Supply Expectations as a Support... Performance and Stock Prices Diverge
The medium- to long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry has not changed solely to a negative perspective. Money Today reported on October 1, citing Micron's earnings announcement, that a memory supply shortage could persist until 2028, along with the potential increase in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). If this outlook holds, it could support performance expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
However, a positive industry outlook alone does not guarantee short-term stock price increases. As seen with Samsung's record preliminary earnings announcement, stock prices can decline as the market considers not only the scale of performance but also the difference from expectations, the sustainability of future growth, and investor sentiment.
Thus, on October 12, the domestic market can focus on three key indicators:
- First, whether the selling pressure from foreign and institutional investors eases. The KOSPI's decline on the last trading day was influenced by combined selling from these investors. If selling continues, particularly in large-cap semiconductor stocks, it could hinder index recovery. Conversely, a reduction in selling and an influx of buying could help mitigate losses.
- Second, the follow-up movements of the U.S. semiconductor sector. Even if major U.S. indices rebound, continued weakness in the semiconductor sector could pose challenges for domestic semiconductor stocks. The stability of the semiconductor index and the alleviation of AI investment concerns will be key indicators of domestic market sentiment.
- Third, the relative stock price movements of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Both companies share expectations for improved memory market conditions, but short-term returns and investor sentiment may differ. It will be important to observe whether they can reduce early losses and if foreign buying interest recovers during trading.
In summary, the domestic market on October 12 is likely to face a tug-of-war between the burdens of the pre-holiday decline and expectations for the memory market. However, given the mixed signals from the U.S. market's rebound and the semiconductor sector's weakness, it is difficult to definitively predict further declines in the KOSPI or rebounds in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. A careful assessment of early stock price movements, foreign and institutional sentiment, and the follow-up actions of the U.S. semiconductor sector will be necessary to gauge market direction.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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