As the Kimjang season approaches, an increase in cabbage supply is expected to lead to lower prices. However, the costs of some essential Kimjang ingredients, such as radishes and salted shrimp, remain a concern. Analysts suggest that whether the recovery in cabbage production translates to an overall decrease in Kimjang expenses depends on the supply situation of key ingredients.
According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT), as of October 8, the retail price of cabbage was 5,833 won per head, a 12.85% decrease from the previous year. The price of radishes also fell to 2,292 won each, down 17.94%.
However, the potential for rising radish prices, coupled with mixed price trends for various Kimjang ingredients, makes it difficult to conclude that the drop in cabbage prices will significantly ease consumers' Kimjang costs. On the same day, the price of salted shrimp rose to 18,984 won per kilogram, an increase of 23.43%, while domestically produced peeled garlic saw a slight rise to 10,711 won per kilogram, up 0.13%.
Increased cabbage supply is anticipated due to a recovery in production. The Korea Rural Economic Institute forecasts this year's fall cabbage production to reach 1.222 million tons, a 19% increase from last year and 3.2% higher than the average. With delayed shipments of summer cabbage and increased fall cabbage production, the cabbage supply in October is expected to rise by 2.1% compared to last year and by 5.5% compared to the average.
As a result of the increased supply, wholesale cabbage prices are also expected to decline in October. The institute predicts that the wholesale price will hover around 8,000 won per 10 kilograms. Retail cabbage prices are already below last year's levels, suggesting that supply conditions for Kimjang may improve compared to last year.
In contrast, the situation for radishes requires closer monitoring. The institute estimates this year's fall radish production at 345,000 tons, a 3.2% increase from last year. However, due to a decrease in summer radish production and delays in the growth of double-cropped radishes, the October radish supply is expected to be 4.7% lower than last year, remaining at a level similar to the average. The production of radishes in October is also projected to decline by 4.2% to 266,000 tons.
Wholesale prices have shown an upward trend. In September, the wholesale price of radishes was 15,230 won per 20 kilograms, higher than the previous year. Even with an increase in fall radish production, the extent to which it can compensate for the gap left by summer radish shipments will be crucial for price stability. The rise in salted shrimp prices, which are over 15% higher than the average, also contributes to increased Kimjang costs.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs anticipates stable supply conditions for Kimjang due to favorable growth of fall cabbage so far. However, it noted that initial growth of radishes has been poor, necessitating careful management. The government plans to implement measures such as managing stockpiles and providing on-site technical guidance and support for fertilizers and nutrients through a growth management consultative body.
As the Kimjang season approaches, safety management of agricultural products will also be strengthened. The National Agricultural Products Quality Management Service will conduct inspections from October 12 to November 30 to ensure compliance with pesticide residue standards for Kimjang vegetables such as cabbage and radishes. Inspections will be carried out in major production areas and traditional markets, and products exceeding the standards will be subject to shipment delays or disposal to prevent distribution.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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