If the Republican Party loses seats in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, China may find itself in a favorable position regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, but could face increased pressure over Taiwan. Should the Democratic Party gain control of Congress, oversight of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and diplomatic actions could intensify. However, bipartisan support for advanced technology controls and security measures targeting China is likely to continue.
In the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, if the Democrats secure a majority in either the House or Senate, it could impose constraints on Trump's policy initiatives.
One area where China might see potential benefits is in trade negotiations. Following a summit in September, the U.S. and China agreed to extend a trade truce and work towards reducing tariffs on non-sensitive goods worth $30 billion from each country. Negotiations are ongoing regarding rare earths, critical minerals, agricultural products, and artificial intelligence-related issues. The deadline for the trade truce has been extended to January of next year as both sides seek further agreements.
However, if the Democrats take control of Congress, they could enhance scrutiny over Trump's tariff impositions and negotiation processes. This would likely limit Trump's ability to use tariffs as a negotiating tool.
There is also a possibility that Trump's diplomatic focus may shift towards domestic politics. Increased congressional investigations, budget negotiations, and conflicts over administration appointments and policies could reduce the political resources the White House can allocate to foreign issues. China may attempt to leverage this situation to secure its interests in trade negotiations.
Nonetheless, it is unlikely that China can expect a significant reduction in U.S. pressure. The Democratic Party has consistently shown a commitment to countering China's advancements in technology and military power, suggesting that sanctions against China are not expected to ease.
In fact, the Taiwan issue could become a greater burden for China. Following a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, Trump withheld approval for an additional $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, a move interpreted as a consideration of U.S.-China relations and trade negotiations. If the Democrats gain influence in Congress, pressure to resume defense support and arms sales to Taiwan could increase. The U.S. Congress has already prepared legislation and budgets to support Taiwan's defense capabilities. If the Democrats maintain a tough stance on China while emphasizing support for Taiwan, it may become difficult for the Trump administration to further delay arms sales in an effort to improve relations with China.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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