SEOUL, March 25 (AJP) — South Korea’s notoriously low fertility rate gained a meaningful boost to 0.99 in January — the highest since monthly tracking began in 2024 — but questions remain over whether it can continue to hold near 1.
According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics on Wednesday, the number of births in January reached 26,916, up 2,817, or 11.7 percent from a year earlier, marking the highest January figure in seven years. Marriages also continued to post similar-pace double-digit growth.
The baby increase follows a 12.5 percent year-on-year rise recorded in January 2025, extending the upward trend in births into early 2026.
The rebound also pushed up the total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — to near 1.0, a sharp jump from 0.74 in December. The figure compares with an annual average of 0.80 in 2025, 0.75 in 2024 and 0.72 in 2023.
South Korea became the only OECD country with a fertility rate below 1 in 2022, when the figure first fell into the 0.7 range.
Annual births also showed signs of recovery, rising to 254,500 last year from around 230,000 in the previous two years.
Still, the sustainability of the rebound remains uncertain.
The increase is partly attributed to the so-called “second echo boom,” as those born between 1991 and 1995 — the children of the second baby boom generation (1964–1974) — enter their prime marriage and childbearing years.
This cohort, which recorded more than 700,000 births annually, has helped lift marriages, alongside the continued impact of government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth.
Despite the uptick, the country still recorded a natural population decline of 5,539 in January, as deaths continued to outnumber births.
Jeon Young-soo, a professor of international studies at Hanyang University, urged caution in interpreting the rebound, noting that demographic effects have played a major role.
“The rise in fertility is not necessarily a sign that the overall birth environment has fundamentally improved,” Jeon said. “Because fertility is a ratio, changes in both the numerator and denominator matter — while births have increased by tens of thousands, the population base has declined more sharply.”
He also pointed to a backlog of delayed marriages following the COVID-19 pandemic as a factor behind the recent increase in births.
Jeon said the trend could continue for the next two to three years but warned against overinterpreting short-term gains.
“This could be a temporary phase driven by demographic factors,” he said. “Rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations, policymakers should focus on long-term, structural strategies to improve the conditions surrounding marriage and childbirth.”
A breakdown by age shows birth rates rose across all groups, led by women in their 30s — the core childbearing cohort.
The birth rate for women aged 30–34 climbed to 90.9, up 8.7 from a year earlier, marking the largest increase. The rate for those aged 35–39 also rose sharply to 65.8, up 8.0.
Among younger women, the rate for those aged 25–29 rose to 25.6, up 1.5, while rates for those aged 24 and under and 40 and above edged up to 2.4 and 5.1, respectively.
On a monthly basis, births increased from 24,099 in January 2025, extending the early-year upward trend. Births rose across all regions except Sejong, indicating a broad-based rebound nationwide.
By birth order, the share of first-born children increased by 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while the proportions of second-born and third-or-higher births each declined by 0.7 percentage points.
Marriages, a leading indicator of births, also increased to 22,640 in January, up 2,489, or 12.4 percent from a year earlier, suggesting continued near-term momentum — though uncertainties remain over its durability.
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