The United States and Iran are nearing a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, which would include reopening the Hormuz Strait and resuming nuclear negotiations. However, the deal remains unconfirmed pending final approval from President Donald Trump and official acknowledgment from Iran.
According to reports from AP, Axios, and Reuters on May 29, the negotiating teams from both countries have drafted a memorandum of understanding to extend the current ceasefire. This draft reportedly includes provisions for the resumption of commercial shipping and the initiation of talks regarding Iran's nuclear program.
A key focus of the draft is the Hormuz Strait. It is said to include clauses for the removal of mines reportedly installed by Iran and the elimination of tolls for vessel passage. In response, the U.S. is considering lifting its maritime blockade on ships entering Iranian ports and reviewing exemptions for oil export sanctions.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime route for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Gulf region. Following the U.S.-Iran conflict, restrictions on shipping by Iran and U.S. blockade measures have contributed to instability in energy markets.
The U.S. is pursuing a dual strategy of negotiation and pressure. According to Reuters, the U.S. has warned Oman, which has acted as a mediator, not to engage in or support any toll imposition plans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensent stated that sanctions could be imposed on relevant individuals and entities. On May 28, the Treasury Department also imposed additional sanctions targeting eight vessels and international companies involved in Iran's military-related oil sales.
Iran has withheld official confirmation of the tentative agreement. State and semi-official media outlets have indicated that reports of a U.S.-proposed ceasefire extension are premature, emphasizing that no final agreement has been reached. They have also criticized U.S. pressure on Oman and highlighted claims that the U.S. has violated the ceasefire.
Military tensions remain high. Recent clashes in the region have involved U.S. forces and Iranian entities. Reuters reported that U.S. officials confirmed strikes on Iranian drones and military facilities, which Washington described as defensive measures, while Tehran labeled them a violation of the ceasefire.
This tentative agreement appears more as a temporary measure to prevent a resumption of hostilities rather than a comprehensive peace deal. While it may help avoid immediate conflict, key issues such as limitations on Iran's nuclear program, the scope of sanctions relief, and the role of Israel remain unresolved.
Markets are interpreting this as a reduction in risk compared to previous conditions. As expectations for an extension grow, international oil prices have weakened, and the New York stock market has risen. However, since the agreement is still pending final approval, volatility in the energy and shipping markets is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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