PYEONGTAEK, South Korea — The by-election for the National Assembly seat in Pyeongtaek, held alongside local elections, is proving to be a closely contested race. Results from exit polls conducted by the three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) and predictions from JTBC show conflicting outcomes, suggesting that the final result may not be clear until the end of the vote counting.
According to the exit polls from the three broadcasters, Cho Kuk of the Justice Party leads with 31.1%, followed closely by Yoo Yi-dong of the People Power Party at 30.6% and Kim Yong-nam of the Democratic Party at 30.3%. The candidates are effectively within the margin of error, indicating a very tight race.
In contrast, JTBC's prediction shows Kim Yong-nam in the lead with around 34%, followed by Cho Kuk. This divergence in results has made Pyeongtaek one of the most unpredictable constituencies in the national by-elections.
Political analysts have characterized this election as a 'three-way structure' rather than a simple contest between the ruling and opposition parties. Yoo Yi-dong, a local native and seasoned lawmaker, has built a strong regional base. Kim Yong-nam is leveraging the advantages of being from the ruling party and its organizational strength to close the gap. Cho Kuk is banking on his national recognition and the mobilization of support for the Justice Party.
Voter sentiment in Pyeongtaek appears to be influenced more by party affiliation and political symbolism than by individual candidates. While younger and progressive voters are increasing around the new Godeok New Town, traditional communities in places like Paengseong-eup and Anjung-eup still show strong support for Yoo Yi-dong.
Moreover, the simultaneous competition between the Democratic Party and the Justice Party has led to a fragmentation of the progressive vote, which is seen as a significant variable in this election. The fact that all three candidates are polling around 30% reflects this vote-splitting phenomenon.
The Pyeongtaek by-election carries implications beyond just the local constituency. If Cho Kuk wins, the Justice Party will gain a foothold in the National Assembly, enhancing its political momentum. Conversely, a victory for the Democratic Party would symbolize a strengthening of the government's early governance momentum. For the People Power Party, a win for Yoo Yi-dong would mean retaining a foothold in the metropolitan area.
Political observers note that the current situation is essentially a three-way tie, with no candidate able to confidently claim victory. The differing results from the exit polls and the minimal gaps between candidates suggest that the final winner may only become clear once a significant portion of the votes has been counted.
Pyeongtaek is likely to be the final battleground in the June 3 by-elections.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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